The Houston Astros (24-29) take on the Seattle Mariners (28-26) Monday in the opener of a 4-game set at T-Mobile Park at 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 2-1
The Astros took 2 of 3 at the Oakland A’s over the weekend and are 6-4 over their last 10. After a miserable start to the year, they’re now just 3½ back from the AL West lead. 3B Alex Bregman picked the worst time for a massive slump. The contract-year star is hitting .210 with 4 homers and 21 RBIs.
OF Julio Rodriguez doesn’t have to worry about a contract, but he opened the year flat as well. He’s showing signs of turning it around with homers in 2 straight games — he’s hitting .260 with 4 homers and 19 RBIs. The Mariners snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 9-5 win as -172 road favorites at the Washington Nationals Sunday. Rodriguez had 4 RBIs to go with a homer in the win.
Astros at Mariners projected starters
LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Bryce Miller
Valdez (3-2, 4.32 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 41 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 8 ER, 10 H, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K in 9-7 home setback vs. Los Angeles Angels May 20
- Last 5 starts vs. Mariners: 0-2, 6.26 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.65 WHIP, 9/2 K/9
Miller (3-5, 3.53 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 58 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 7-3 setback at New York Yankees Wednesday
- Career vs. Astros: 2-1, 3.22 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 in 4 starts
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Astros at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:49 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Astros at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 6, Astros 4
Moneyline
The M’s are 7-3 in their last 10 against the ‘Stros. It’s a little curious that Houston would be favored on the road here. Yes, Valdez is on the mound, but he got lit up by the lowly Angels last time out and hasn’t fared well against Seattle in his last 5 turns against them.
TAKE MARINERS (+110).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS on the run line as we’re on the Seattle ML above.
However, I like FRAMBER VALDEZ UNDER 5.5 K’S (+100) here. He has only fanned 6 or more in 2 of his last 7 starts. Plus, he struck out just 3 in 5 1/3 innings against Seattle May 4.
Over/Under
It’s slated to be 65 degrees with a very light breeze headed out to right-center. Both starters gave up 5+ runs in their last outings, and we had 8+ runs in 2 of the 3 head-to-head meetings earlier this season.
With this number being fairly low, I like OVER 7.5 (-105).
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