Golf picks: The RSM Classic predictions & best bets from Diane Knox Balas

What a tale of challenge, resilience and triumph for Camilo Villegas, who won the Bermuda Championship last week after finishing runner-up the week prior in Mexico. To say these results came out of nowhere would be fair, considering he was 500/1 entering the WWT Championship two weeks ago.

He jumped from 223rd pre-Mexico now to 75th in the FedExCup standings and has secured his PGA Tour membership for two years, in addition to the abundance of benefits that come with a win. One week can really be life-altering on the PGA Tour, especially for the guys who are fighting for their jobs during this Fall season.

Alex Noren was in prime position to take the trophy all week, but came up two shots short of Villegas. I had Noren for a top-10 at 3/1 so I was pretty happy with that one small financial gain.

It’s the final event of the 2023 season and the fate of many will be decided in Sea Island, Georgia. The RSM Classic takes place over two courses and if the last few years are anything to go by, weather conditions will be very different to those seen in Bermuda last week. It’s been freezing (I’ve been there and this Scot doesn’t say that lightly!) and the wind can be piercing. However, the forecast looks decent with lows of 53F and highs of 74F.

This is it; the last chance saloon to crack the 125. If not, 126-150th in the standings gain conditional status and for the rest, the daunting prospect of Q-School in December looms. There’s going to be a lot of number crunching and predicted volatility over the course of four days, and stress levels will be high. Those around the bubble include Andrew Nowak (124th), Carl Yuan (125th), Henrik Norlander (126th) and Maverick McNealy (127th). 

Sea Island is home to a plethora of Golfers and the majority of them will be teeing it up this week, including Champion Golfer of the Year Brian Harman, J.T. Poston, Harris English, Keith Mitchell and Patton Kizzire, who sits at No.130 in the standings. Adam Svensson is back to defend his title from last year, and Ludvig Aberg sits atop of the odds board as the Vegas favorite.

Seaside and Plantation Courses: What you need to know

The RSM Classic is played over two courses this week, the Seaside (7,005 yards) and the Plantation (7,060 yards). The Seaside course hosts the weekend’s rounds.

The field must take advantage of their 18 holes on the Plantation course, which plays to a scoring average of 1.6 under par and rewards aggressive play. We also don’t get ShotLink data for this course. The Seaside is exposed, running alongside the water and has a real “links” feel to it. 

Great putting will be key this week, with the previous three champions all inside the top-10 in strokes gained on the greens. The fairways are tight, and a strong off-the-tee Game is essential too.

Accuracy is rewarded, both off the tee and into the greens, and the course’s biggest defense is definitely the wind. The forecast says maximum 16 mph winds for the week, but you can bet it’ll blow harder when the guys are out there.

Knox’s Knockout RSM Classic picks

Brian Harman (+2000 at BetMGM)

I simply can’t leave Harman off my card this week, especially at 20/1. The Sea Island resident has been one of the hottest Golfers of 2023, winning The Open, finishing within the top-10 an additional six times and making his Ryder Cup debut back in September. In addition, he finished runner-up here last year and it’s safe to say the local had has played these courses hundreds of times. With no current form to go on, one has to assume Harman has been keeping his Game fresh while enjoying an off-season, so during a week of stress for many he’s going to be feeling very little pressure. As I said, at 20/1 I’m taking him as an outright.

Alex Noren (+3300 at UniBet)

The Swede made me a bit of cash last week, and I’m hoping he’ll follow the Villegas model of “runner-up to winner” in the space of two weeks. I knew Noren would play well in the windy conditions of Bermuda, and he can take that form straight to the literal seaside for the RSM Classic. With two top-3s in his last three starts, Alex is hot right now and looking for his first win Stateside. He’s played well here in the past with a T10 in 2020 and T18 in ’21. Noren is 23rd in putting on the whole Tour for the season and has only lost strokes on the greens in two of his last eight starts. Well within the FedExFall Top-10 for spots in the first two Signature Events of the Year, Noren will be under less pressure than most of the field with victory top of his agenda.

Matti Schmid (+6000 at UniBet)

Matti made the biggest jump up the standings last week, bouncing up from 148th to 120th after his 3rd place finish in Bermuda. It’s pretty evident that form in these Fall events is a big component, and Matti took the momentum from a runner-up finish at the Spanish Masters on the DP World Tour overseas to put himself in a strong position to lock up his card for 2024. This course should fit his Game too. I like him to arrive in Sea Island full of confidence to keep climbing.

Fred Biondi (+40000 at DraftKings)

A 400/1?! Hear me out – and I’ll give you a prop bet too. Fred Biondi is Brazilian and one of the hot new names to come straight from the college circuit. He was part of the University of Florida’s NCAA Championship-winning squad earlier this year and was also the NCAA Individual National Champion for 2023. To only add gas to the flame, earlier this year the Florida Gators won the SEC Championship on the Seaside Course! Fred played in Bermuda last week and finished in a tie for 13th. This marks his fourth start on the PGA Tour, and with some confidence from last week and a win at Sea Island with the Gators, Biondi will be a fun one to watch. At 10/1 for a top-20, I’ll be putting a few bucks on him.

RSM Classic Prop Bets

Vince Whaley top-20 (+400 at Bet365)

Whaley’s been appearing on leaderboards over the Fall season with three top-13 finishes in his last six starts, one of which was a T8 last week. Vince is a great putter and ranked 8th in the field last week, and 4/1 for a top-20 this week looks good to me. Plus, at 160th in the standings he’ll be aiming for that top-150 for conditional status next year.

J.T. Poston top-10 (+400 at Bet365)

Poston’s playing in his home tournament this week, is fully locked up for next year, is coming off a 3rd place in Vegas last month and is expecting his first child. Life seems good for the Postman, and so do these 4/1 odds for another top-10.

Webb Simpson top-10 (+750 at Bet365)

Simpson hasn’t been in form this year and sits at 149th in the standings. Top-150 is beneficial, and Webb is back to a place he knows – and loves – when it matters most. With five top-8 finishes at the RSM Classic and odds of +750 for a top-10, he looks like one to watch in my eyes.