Golf picks: Mexico Open predictions & best bets from Diane Knox Balas

The PGA Tour heads to Mexico for the Mexico Open at Vidanta, the second time this tournament has been part of the schedule. Last year, Jon Rahm lifted the trophy and it’s now quite funny to think that this was his lone victory of 2022. He’s already won four times in the 2023 season, including the Masters just a few weeks ago, and now sits at No.1 in the world.

The field is a lot weaker than we’ve seen in tournaments of late, with only one other player inside the OWGR top-50 teeing it up – Tony Finau. Finau finished runner-up behind Rahm here last year and will also be strong favorite to win this week.

Last year, in the inaugural Mexico Open at this course, it became clear pretty quickly that Vidanta Vallarta is a bomber’s paradise, and the longest hitters on Tour were the ones who were contending over the four days – Rahm, Finau, Cameron Champ and Kurt Kitayama.

It will come as no surprise to learn that Rahm is the overwhelming favorite this week at +290. Those are the smallest odds I think I’ve ever seen at a Golf tournament! For that reason, I’m not going to take him as one of my outright picks; I don’t need to detail all the reasons why the Spaniard could win this thing. Tony Finau follows him at +850.

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Vidanta Vallarta: What you need to know

As we saw last year, this course really does favor the long hitters. It’s a par 71 and measures 7,456 yards. The Greg Norman design only opened in 2015 and wraps around the Ameca River. The course is really stunning, with views of the Sierra Madre mountains on every hole.

Fairways are wide and generous and the rough isn’t overly penalizing, therefore the big hitters can blast their way around here to put them at a distinct advantage. 

The bunkers offer an element of defense, with 106 in total, and some of the large greens are protected by deep sand traps. 

I’m definitely looking at distance off the tee this week, as well as great, positional iron players and guys who have some current form on the greens.

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Knox’s Knockout Mexico Open Picks

Wyndham Clark (+2100 at FanDuel)

Clark is just outside the top-10 biggest hitters on the Tour, averaging 311 yards off the tee. He’s also coming off a great week at the Zurich Classic, finishing 3rd with partner Beau Hossler after a very solid performance over the four days. Not only that, but Wyndham is having a strong eason with four top-10s under his belt, including a 5th at the Valspar, immediately followed by a 6th in Punta Cana last month. He made the cut here last year but didn’t have a great finish, however his Game appears to be in very different state this time around.

Gary Woodland (+2800 at PointsBet)

When talking about the biggest hitters on Tour, Gary Woodland is always part of the conversation. Having said that, last year at this tournament he LOST to the field in driving distance, yet still finished within the top-25. Woodland seems to have turned a corner after struggling with injury and the 2019 U.S. Open champion has posted some good results lately – T14 at the Masters and T9 at the Genesis. He’s said himself that his confidence took a beating, but with this upward trend in his game this course could be a great fit right about now.

Matt Wallace (+8000 at PointsBet)

Vidanta Vallarta is a coastal course with sticky, paspalum grass, and I’m looking at a guy who’s been playing well and just got his debut PGA Tour win in a similar place. Matt Wallace, winner of last month’s Corales Puntacana Championship, has had an additional three top-20s in 2023 (across PGA Tour and the DP World Tour) and has consistently gained strokes on the field in distance, apart from at The Players last month. If the Englishman’s putter gets hot this week, I’m confident he’ll be in the upper part of the leaderboard. 

Cameron Champ (+12500 at PointsBet)

Last year, Champ was in contention right until the end and eventually finished in a tie for 6th. His season had been pretty dismal until the event prior, where he finished top-10 at the Masters and then continued his strong play at a course that really suits his length off the tee. He’s coming off six consecutive missed cuts, which is no doubt why his odds are so high for a tournament the played well in last year, however it only takes one good week on Tour to turn it all around. After the way he played here in 2022, I won’t be overlooking him to make a comeback this week.

Mexico Open Prop Bets

Matti Schmid top-20 finish (+450 at DraftKings)

I’m really going for the long hitters this week and Schmid is 4th on Tour in distance. He had a great putting week last week at the Zurich, but I really think his sheer power off the tee will help him with a top-20 finish.

Brandon Wu top-10 finish (+500 at DraftKings)

Brandon finished tied for 2nd last year at the Mexico Open. His season of late has been up and down, however last week in New Orleans he gained strokes in all categories across the board and has had three top-20 finishes this season, including another runner-up finish at Pebble Beach. Wu also has performed well at the other two coastal courses (Puerto Rico and Punta Cana). I think he’ll feel comfortable coming back here.

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