Golf picks: Bermuda Championship predictions & best bets from Diane Knox Balas

Sunday was a stark reminder for us all that life is bigger than golf. While the FedEx Fall events may, at times, seem like the be-all or end-all for those battling for points and their Tour cards, Erik Van Rooyen used his winner’s press conference at the WWT Championship to devote the victory to his best friend who is fighting his own battle with cancer. If you haven’t seen it, look it up – it’s pretty special.

The South Africa, who was understandably overcome with emotion, eagled the 72nd hole to win by two strokes over fan-favorite Camillo Villegas and veteran Matt Kuchar. It was a huge win for EVR in terms of the points race, as he’s jumped from being the “bubble boy” at No.125 to 63rd.

With two events to go, the pressure is on and these last two events are critical for those who sit around the 125 number in the standings. The penultimate event on the schedule is the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, and it’s the fifth consecutive year the tournament has been held at Port Royal Golf Course.

I picked the outright winner in Seamus Power last year, and my other pick of Thomas Detry finished runner-up. Good wind players who had played all over the world, and great putters! Notable names teeing it up this week include Adam Scott, making his tournament debut, Lucas Glover and past champions Brendon Todd, Brian Gay and Lucas Herbert.

If you want a fun storyline to follow, check out 15-year old Oliver Betschart. The Bermudian earned his spot in the field after taking part in a 54-hole qualifying tournament, and last year became the youngest ever winner of the Port Royal Golf Club Championship. He’s +3000 for a top-20 finish, by the way. 

Port Royal Golf Course: What you need to know

Port Royal GC is the longest course on the island of Bermuda, yet plays as the second shortest on the PGA Tour schedule (behind Pebble Beach Golf Links). Measuring 6,828 yards, this par 71 sits right on the coast and possess a number of elevation changes. 

The weather plays a huge role here, making the course fairly unpredictable at times. It’s not just the strength of the wind, which is forecast to gust 20mph by the end of the week (yet I’m sure will feel like more), but the wind direction can change suddenly too.

Accurate driving is going to be key here, along with solid overall tee-to-green and good putting on Bermuda greens. Unfortunately we don’t have detailed, historic ShotLink data to look back on for this tournament, but I’m also going to be looking at experienced wind players.

Having said all that, Herbert only hit 51% of fairways en route to his victory and used his length and excellent scrambling to plot his way around the course, combined with top-15 putting for the week. Great putting really is the common denominator at this event.

Knox’s Knockout Butterfield Bermuda Championship picks

Alex Smalley (+2800 at DraftKings)

Alex is in a great spot right now, firmly within the top-60 in the FedEx Fall standings and playing for a spot in the first two Signature Events of 2024. However, he’s chasing his debut win on Tour and must see this week as a great opportunity to get it. Smalley’s played here twice before and has finished T12 and T11, and is in great form with seven top-10s this season alongside a T16 at the Sanderson Farms last month. He hasn’t lost strokes off-the-tee since July, but he’s going to have to putt well this week on these familiar greens.

Chesson Hadley (+3500 at DraftKings)

I love these odds for a guy coming off back-to-back T7 finishes in the last two tournaments. Chesson Hadley has played well when he needed too, entering the FedEx Fall at No.121 and now sits at 104th. He’s also finished T16 and T17 in Bermuda since 2021. He’s putting well, and ranked 4th last week in Mexico on the greens, and has gained strokes in approach every week since August. 

Justin Lower (+7000 at DraftKings)

I think course History is going to be a key component this week, and Lower has played well here over the last two years, finishing T8 last year and T17 the year prior. 

The FedEx Fall portion of the season has been up and down for him, with 2/5 missed cuts and T23 last week being his best finish, however he’s within the top-10 in the field in putting and that’s going to be so key.

Patton Kizzire (+9000 at FanDuel)

I picked Patton last week for the WWT Championship after noticing an upturn in his putting, and that continued in Mexico. He finished in a tie for 15th, and while we don’t have detailed stats from the tournament, he got to -18, was 6th in greens in regulation, 16th in scrambling and 39th in putting. He almost moved up to No.126 in the standings, so has to make a push this week and next. Kizzire is making his tournament debut here, but I like the positives in his Game, combined with the fight to keep his card.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Prop Bets

Alex Noren top-10 (+300 at Bet365)

I like Noren to play well in Bermuda. He’s a great wind player, an experienced journeyman who’s played worldwide and finished 3rd in Vegas a few weeks ago. Sitting at 86th in the standings, Noren will be aiming for the FedEx Fall top-10 at the end of next week. He’s played here once before and finished T15, so knows what to expect out there.

Peter Malnati top-20 (+300 at Bet365)

Malnati needs a big week, sitting at 122nd in the standings. He’s played well here before, with a T7 and T21 on the resume. He’s an excellent putter, ranked 18th on the Tour for the whole season, and scrambles well. With pressure mounting, I like him to have a decent week.