Football

Corner Picks, Champions League best bets, odds, predictions: Arsenal aim for comeback against Porto and more

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Mar 12, 2024 / 3469 Views

The final legs of the Champions League Round of 16 are this week (you can catch coverage of all the action on Paramount+, CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports Golazo Network), and while we don't have quite the overall name power of last week, we can at least hope for more drama. Of last week's four matches, only Real Madrid getting past RB Leipzig by an aggregate score of 2-1 provided a sense of uncertainty.

The other matchups saw our three winners (Manchester City, Bayern Munich, PSG) win by an average of three goals. This week, we have two matchups that enter the final leg tied 1-1, while the other two are 1-0. The possibility for drama and chaos exists, so how will things play out? I have no idea, but I'm willing to pretend I do.

Arsenal vs. Porto

Date: Tuesday, March 12 | Time: 4 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

I was shocked by how listless Arsenal looked in the first leg of this matchup. I understand they're in a dogfight with Liverpool and Manchester City in the Premier League, but Arsenal managing only seven shots, with none on target, in a 1-0 loss to Porto seemingly came from nowhere. When Galeno scored the Game-winner in stoppage time, I had to rub my eyes a bit to make sure it was real.

Can Porto pull off another stunner? Maybe, but probably not. Coming back home, I anticipate Arsenal will attempt to do much more with their possession than in the first match. We know Arsenal will need at least two goals to advance without extra time, and there's a good possibility they will drive the point home even further with three. The over feels like the smart play here because Arsenal needs goals, and we can't rule out Porto pilfering another one for themselves. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-160)

Barcelona vs. Napoli

Date: Tuesday, March 12 | Time: 4 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

There's good news and bad news for Napoli. The good news is that Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is back in Kvaradona form, scoring four goals in Napoli's last three matches. The bad news is that while Napoli are yet to lose under new manager Francesco Calzona (whose first match was the first leg against Barcelona), they've only won two of their five matches and have allowed a goal in all of them. Defensively, this team still provides far too many opportunities to its opponent.

So, as we head back to Spain for the second leg tied 1-1, it's hard not to bet on a Barcelona team that's been so solid at home this season, particularly in attack. Barcelona have yet to lose in any of their last eight matches across all comPetitions, scoring 2.32 goals per match at home. Neither one of these teams is having the season it wanted, but Barcelona are better positioned to salvage a Champions League run. The Pick: Barcelona (-115)

Atlético Madrid vs. Inter Milan

Date: Wednesday, March 13 | Time: 4 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

I get a little nervous when a bet feels too easy, and this bet feels too easy. Inter lead 1-0 after winning the first leg in Milan, but Atleti were extremely lucky to get out of Italy only down a goal. Inter finished with 2.3 xG and put five shots on target, but Jan Oblak was a brick wall. Sure, it's possible Oblak could do the same thing in the second leg, but even if he does, Atleti need to score twice, and they posed little threat in the first 90 minutes.

Which is nothing new. Madrid have won only two of their last nine matches, and those wins came against Las Palmas and Betis. Nothing against those fine mid-table sides, but Inter have 13 straight and hold a 16-point lead in Serie A. They're pretty good! I'm betting on that pretty good to continue being pretty good. The Pick: Inter (+155)

Borussia Dortmund vs. PSV Eindhoven

Date: Wednesday, March 13 | Time: 4 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

The best bet here would be on this match having the least viewers of any Round of 16 matchup, but this could also be the most entertaining matchup. The first leg was wide open, and while it may have finished 1-1, it could easily have been a 3-2 kind of match. I'm expecting more of the same in the second leg.

PSV are easy to overlook because they're a Dutch team that isn't Ajax, but they have good players and plenty of confidence. If you'd managed to avoid defeat in 27 straight matches, you'd feel good about yourself, too. The difference here is that while PSV dominate their home league (their +67 goal differential is 23 goals better than second place), they has allowed their opponent to score at least once in 10 of 11 Champions League matches. I don't trust Dortmund nearly enough on the defensive end to bet on them getting a win here, but I'm quite confident both of these teams will find the net at least once. The Pick: Both Teams to Score (-180)