Corner Picks, best soccer bets, predictions odds: Bayer Leverkusen to score, why Man City can top Arsenal

The last Bundesliga manager to overcome Bayern Munich to win the league went on to become manager at Liverpool. It's a move that, for the time being, Xabi Alonso has no intentions of turning into a tradition.

That last manager was Jurgen Klopp, who led Borussia Dortmund to consecutive league titles in 2011 and 2012 before making his way to England following the summer of 2015. Alonso has long been seen as Liverpool's desired candidate to replace Klopp, but on Thursday, the news came that Alonso would remain with Bayer Leverkusen, which has a 10-point lead on Bayern with eight matches to play, for at least one more season. On the surface, there's risk involved here.

Leverkusen is having a truly special season and haven't lost a match in any comPetition. There's always a chance that order will be restored next season and Bayern will return to the throne while Leverkusen (which have only qualified for the Champions League twice in the previous six seasons) fall back to its normal place in the German pecking order.

Similar things were likely said about Klopp and his Dortmund squad in 2011. He stayed and won the league again in 2012, with Robert Lewandowski emerging as their top goal threat. I don't know that that's likely to happen for Alonso, but one thing working in his favor is his Leverkusen team isn't built around a superstar goal-scorer. They've continued to succeed after injury to their top striker, Victor Boniface. It's truly a team effort, which could make it more sustainable.

Still, a job like Liverpool doesn't come around often, and if Alonso doesn't continue to win at this rate, there's a chance he won't get another shot. Of course, Alonso isn't just a former Liverpool player. He played at Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, too. He was reportedly Bayern's top pick as well, where Thomas Tuchel is leaving at season's end. But, unlike Liverpool, that job is seemingly there for the taking every 18 months. Perhaps he's simply waiting for one of those jobs to open, or open again, before moving on.

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Hoffenheim

Date: Saturday, March 30 | Time: 10:30 a.m. ET | Watch: ESPN+

Let's return to Xabi Alonso's current team, which continues to run roughshod over the Bundesliga. While international breaks sometimes lead to wonky results, I don't see that happening here. And, even if it does, our play can still win. There have been times in recent weeks when Leverkusen's defending has been sketchy and provided opponents with a few too many chances, but I'm not confident Hoffenheim will capitalize.

What I do believe is that Leverkusen will score. Hoffenheim have allowed 26 goals in 13 away matches this year, and have been on a terrible run defending for a while now. Not only have Hoffenheim failed to keep a clean sheet since late September, but they've allowed at least three goals in six of their last 12 matches. And the xG (expected goals) numbers show nothing fluky about the results. The Pick: Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5 Goals (-150)

Lazio vs. Juventus

Date: Saturday, March 30 | Time: 1 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

Maurizio Sarri's sudden resignation following a 2-1 loss to Udinese earlier this month caught Lazio by surprise, but perhaps it shouldn't have. It was Lazio's fifth loss in six matches, and the team had been hovering around mid-table all season. Clearly, Sarri had felt his horse had run its race. Lazio responded with a 3-2 win over a bad Frosinone team before the break, and I'm assuming new manager Igor Tudor has spent the two weeks doing the thing most new managers do when they take over midseason: working on defending. It's much easier to pick up points by not allowing goals than figuring out ways to suddenly find the back of the net when you haven't done so all season.

I'm expecting Saturday's tilt against Juventus to be a sluggish affair. Juventus haven't been firing on all cylinders themselves, as they have managed only seven points in their last eight Serie A matches and scored 22 goals on 21.4 xG in 14 away matches this season. This truly feels like a first team to score wins, and if there's a second goal, it'll come in stoppage time. The Pick: Under 2.5 (-165)

Manchester City vs. Arsenal

Date: Sunday, March 31 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: NBC

A rather important match in the Premier League! Arsenal enter the weekend tied with Liverpool on top of the league at 64 points. Manchester City are right behind with 63. Liverpool will face Brighton on Sunday morning before this match, and if they pick up all three points, this match becomes something of a must-win for both squads. That's not good news for Arsenal.

Not only have Arsenal been poorer away from home this season, but they haven't had much success at Man City lately. Manchester City have won eight straight against Arsenal at the Etihad. The last time Arsenal managed a point against City in Manchester was a 2-2 draw in May 2016. Yes, Arsenal have won both meetings this season, but one was in a penalty shootout at Wembley. The Pick: Manchester City (-103)

Weekend Parlay

This weekend we have a four-leg parlay paying +151.

• Tottenham (-475)
• Barcelona (-425)
• Porto (-295)
• Stuttgart (-390)