Cook Out Southern 500 2023 Odds, Predictions & NASCAR Betting Picks

Darlington. The Lady In Black. The Track Too Tough To Tame.

It hosts the race in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs this week in the form of the Cook Out Southern 500. One of the Crown Jewels of NASCAR is the best way to kickoff the path to the championship in 10 races. It’s also the second race of the year at Darlington which is always a tough test of driver, team, and car and nabbing a win here would lock a playoff driver into the Round of 12.

How do the NASCAR playoffs effect how we are betting Darlington? Can we bet non-playoff drivers even in a playoff race? What are the tracks we’re comparing to Darlington for betting? What are the key stats we’re looking at for drivers to bet? All of that plus winner predictions and best prop bets for the Cook Out Southern 500 will be found when you keep reading.

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Darlington track layout and trends

The famed asphalt of Darlington has been a test of a who’s who of NASCAR drivers since the track opened in 1950. The 1.366-mile track is not only unique in the distance of the track but also the shape as an egg-shaped layout. The famous story is that it’s egg-shaped because of owner of the property not wanting a fish pond removed when the track was built. That decision wreaks havoc with car setup to this day.

How does that havoc weigh into the trends? This is a hard track for young drivers to win at; that’s the first trend. It’s also a track that can see a lot of repeat winners. Once you figure out how to make it the distance at Darlington, it’s a much easier race to manage. In the last 12 races here, we have seen 4 drivers win at least 2 races each. Another trend to be aware of is that no-one in that span has won from further back than P16 in the starting grid and 8 of 12 winners have started P9 or better. Darlington is also known as a caution-heavy track. In the last 12 races dating back to 2016, there has been an average of 8.5 cautions a race. Granted a couple are due to stage breaks, but that’s still at least 6.5 natural yellows a race.

Cook Out Southern 500 betting strategies

Given the trends and the track history, what are the betting strategies for Sunday’s race? The first strategy is to look more at the playoff drivers more than non-playoff drivers. Why? They simply have more on the line with a shot at the championship rather than just a race win. Sure, the non-playoff drivers would love to win but the cars in the playoffs are getting more attention in setup. The second part of the strategy is to not only look at the drivers who’ve previously won here, but have been fast. The key to winning at Darlington is long run speed, and tire wear management. Darlington, aside from Auto Club, eats tires more than any other track on the schedule. Drivers that can manage the tires and keep speed late in runs are the ones with the best shots at winning on Sunday. As for the comparable tracks to Darlington, we are looking at not only the last 3 Darlington races but also Las Vegas, Charlotte, Kansas, Richmond, Homestead and Auto Club mainly from 2023.

Winner predictions for Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted

Martin Truex Jr. +550 (FanDuel)

Truex is one of the multi-time winner in the last 12 races as mentioned above. He has 2 wins here and has been on quite a roll this year. The track history is one thing but in the last 10 similar races, Truex has 5 top-10s and the second-best Driver Rating in the field. Being consistently fast, toward the front and having wins here makes him a clear favorite this week.

Denny Hamlin +800 (BetMGM)

A 3-time winner at The Lady in Black in the last 12 races says all we need about him. Some of those drives have been spectacular, too. Hamlin is a master at tire management and that shows being one of only three drivers with a Driver Rating over 100 in the last 10 similar races. While it’s been a bit of an interesting season in terms of Hamlin’s overall speed, at the similar tracks he has always shown up with speed good enough to compete for wins.

William Byron +850

One of his 5 wins this year came at Darlington in the Spring. That’s his first Darlington win but it certainly makes him a threat this weekend. Byron has won on every type of track this year and getting his playoffs off to a win and a berth in the Round of 12 will be on his to-do list this weekend. He should easily have the speed to make checking that off the list a serious possibility in Darlington.

Kevin Harvick +1600

These odds are frankly too long for a 2-time Darlington winner in the last eight races. While SHR has had a rough year in this rules package, that’s not been the case for Harvick. In the last 10 similar races, the 4-car has the best average finish in the field with the most top-fives and top-10s. Harvick has long been known as a driver who is the best manager of tires on high-tire-wear tracks, as well. He is in the playoffs and at one of his best tracks for the last time, so these odds are too long.

Bubba Wallace +3000

In the playoffs for the first time in his Cup career, the mojo is on his side. What else is on his side? His improving finishes at Darlington. He’s posted a P9 and then P5 in the last 2 trips to the South Carolina track. The Toyotas as a group have been finding speed recently and that’s shown with 3 top-5s in the last four similar races for Wallace. He has never won at Darlington but the speed at other tracks is encouraging here.

Erik Jones +5000 (BetRivers)

Why is a two-time Darlington winner — and winner of this race last year — this far down the odds list? Seriously. He may not be in the playoffs, but we can’t ignore his history just because of that. When a driver is good at a track, especially one like Darlington, we need to have some exposure to him. There is also the fact that he has posted 4 top-5s in the last 10 Darlington races — which has made him a consistent threat.

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NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 best prop bets

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted

Kevin Harvick Top-5 Finish +240 (BetMGM)

Anyone want to tell me why a driver with 8 top-5s in the last 10 Darlington races is +240? Really? Just take these odds and run. The value is huge here with implied odds being 29.41%. He has pulled this off 80% of the time in that span and 40% of the time in the last 10 similar races.

Alex Bowman Top-10 Finish +200

Similar to Harvick, the odds are just too long here. He has posted 5 top-12 finishes in his last seven similar races to Darlington. Bowman is also typically quite good at slicker, higher tire-wear tracks. While he has endured a bit of bad luck at Darlington in the past, if he can show the form he has had at similar tracks we are in a good spot with Jones — not to mention this works as a solid hedge for the bet above.

Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +125

We are getting plus odds for a driver at his best track? He’s not only won twice here, but he’s posted 4 top-5s and 6 top-10s in the last 10 races here. That’s too many good finishes here to ignore these positive of odds for Jones.

Austin Dillon Top-10 Finish +550

Odds are long, but I’m not sure of the reason. He has posted 3 top-10 finishes in the last 4 similar races this year and the RCR cars have been quite good in this rules package. While he’s not in the playoffs, we’re just looking for a solid finish from him — which is possible, especially if his recent form holds.

Kevin Harvick -115 vs. Chris Buescher

This comes down to records at similar tracks. Despite the roll that Buescher has been on including a win at Richmond, Harvick is simply a driver with a better History. Remember, for a matchup we are just looking for a driver to finish better than the other — which Harvick has done a ton over Buescher.

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