The Cleveland Guardians (5-2) and Minnesota Twins (3-2) open a 3-Game series Thursday at Target Field in Minneapolis. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Guardians won series 7-6 in 2023, while going 4-3 in Minneapolis
The Guardians rolled up an 8-0 win in the series finale in Seattle on Wednesday, Cleveland’s 2nd 8-0 victory of the opening week. The Over (7.5) cashed Wednesday, and is now 5-1-1 in 7 games for Cleveland.
The Twins racked up a 7-3 win in Milwaukee Wednesday, hitting the Over (9), while halting a 2-Game skid. Minnesota pitching has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 4 of 5 outings to date, with the Under holding a slight 3-2 edge so far this season.
Guardians at Twins projected starters
RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Pablo Lopez
Bibee (0-0, 6.75 ERA) makes his 2nd start in 2024. He has a 2.75 WHIP, 11.3 BB/9, 9.0 K/9 in 4 IP.
- 2023 road splits: 5-2, 3.79 ERA (73 2/3 IP, 31 ER – 11 HR), 23 BB, 74 K in 13 starts
- 2023 vs. Twins: 0-0, 4.20 ERA (15 IP, 6 ER – 1 HR), 9 BB, 18 K in 3 starts
Lopez (1-0, 1.29 ERA) makes his 2nd start in 2024. He has a 0.57 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9, 9.0 K/9 in 7 IP.
- 2023 home splits: 5-3, 4.21 ERA (98 1/3 IP, 46 ER – 11 HR), 25 BB, 123 K in 16 starts
- 2023 vs. Guardians: 1-1, 4.58 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 9 ER – 1 HR), 7 BB, 13 K in 3 starts
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Guardians at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Twins -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-165) | Twins -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Guardians at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Guardians 3
Moneyline
The TWINS (-150) are a strong play as moderate favorites in their home opener. Minnesota is coming in with plenty of confidence after posting a season-high in runs in the series finale in Milwaukee on Wednesday. It picked up a 4-1 win behind Lopez in the March 28 opener in Kansas City, too.
The Guardians (+125) are running on fumes, playing their 8th road game of the season. Bibee was up and down against the Twins last season. Side with Lopez and the home side.
Run line/Against the spread
The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-165) aren’t priced out of line if you’d like a little bit of insurance, and you just can’t trust taking Cleveland on the moneyline.
The Guardians are 7-3 on the run line in the past 10 meeting with the Twins -1.5 (+140), either as a favorite or underdog.
Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-115) is worth a look in this home opener for Minnesota, although go lightly.
The Under went 6-3 in the final 9 regular-season meetings between these teams in 2023. While the Over is 5-1-1 in 7 games for Cleveland to date, the Under holds a slight 3-2 edge in 5 games for Minnesota so far.
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