The Chicago Cubs (23-16) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (17-22) at PNC Park Saturday to continue a 3-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cubs won the 2023 series 10-3, and lead 2024, 1-0
In their last series versus the Padres, the Cubs failed to score more than 3 runs. It was almost the same for Pittsburgh, who scored more than 3 runs once against the Angels. But it was the Cubs who broke out of their slump Friday night.
After leading 3-2, Chicago erupted in the 7th inning with 4 runs. 3B Christopher Morel and 2B Nick Madrigal hit RBI singles and LF Ian Happ came through with a double, and the Cubs won 7-2.
Pittsburgh came away with 7 hits, and SS Oneil Cruz, who lead Friday’s lineup with a .261 BA, also ended the night going 2-3, the only Pirate with 2 hits.
Cubs at Pirates projected starters
LHP Justin Steele vs. RHP Paul Skenes
Steele (0-0, 0.96 ERA) makes his 3rd start this season. He has a 0.85 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 9 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-3 home loss against the San Diego Padres Monday.
- Last 5 starts vs. PIT: 1-2, 5.84 ERA, 29 K in 24 2/3 IP
Skenes (0-0, 0.99 ERA in AAA Indianapolis) makes his MLB debut. In the minors he posted a 0.91 WHIP and 14.8 K/9 in 7 starts.
- Last start: 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in an 8-3 home win against the Buffalo Bisons on Sunday
- Averaged 99.9 mph on his fastball over 198 pitches at Triple-A this year.
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Cubs at Pirates odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cubs -110 (bet $110 to win $110) | Pirates -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+165) | Pirates +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +105)
Cubs at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 3, Pirates 2
Moneyline
After a loss, Pittsburgh has only won 7 of their 21 games (33.3%). Combine that with a Cubs team that has a 3-1 record against the NL Central, and I like Chicago to win again today.
Run line/Against the spread
Steele is still working his way back from injury and hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings since he returned. It is early in the season so I don’t expect the Cubs to push him late in the game, meaning Chicago’s bullpen will get plenty of chances to keep this game close.
While the Cubs are 14-6 ATS on the road, as a road favorite they are just 1-2.
Choosing the Pirates at +1.5 (-200) just doesn’t bring the value so I will PASS and stick with the moneyline.
Over/Under
After a loss, the Pirates post a 12-7-2 Under record and 11-7-1 at home. The current line is pretty low but the books seem to know what is coming. The line has already moved from 7.5 to 7.
LEAN UNDER 6.5 (+105).
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