Celtics vs Mavs Last Minute Predictions, Picks, Odds

Is an absent Kristaps Porzingis enough to get the Dallas Mavericks back into the NBA Finals? The Boston Celtics have already won 10 playoff games without him, so they just may be alright.

Factoring that into Celtics vs. Mavericks predictions can help add value to our free NBA picks before tip on Wednesday, June 12, at 8:30 ET.

For more analysis of NBA Finals Game 3, check out our Celtics vs Mavs same-game parlay picks!

Celtics vs Mavs prediction

My best bet
Derrick White Over 15.5 points (+108 at Caesars)

Best odds available in your region

This number has climbed from 14.5 — or even 13.5 with heavy juice — since first committing to the thought of backing Derrick White for a third straight game. It has not climbed enough.

With Kristaps Porzingis out for Game 3, his offensive chances disproportionately fall to White, as surprising as that may seem given their 10-inch difference in height. With Porzingis sidelined for 11 of Boston’s 14 playoff games before the Finals, only three genuine Boston Celtics contributors saw their usage rates climb compared to the regular season.

Jaylen Brown’s ticked up half a percent, Al Horford’s moved 1.8%, and White’s jumped 1.6% to 20.3%.

Most notably, since Porzingis’s initial injury, White has averaged nine 3-pointer attempts per Game while shooting 40.2% from beyond the arc. That rate alone nearly gets him to this points prop, even this iNFLated points prop.

Losing Porzingis does not change who White has to beat. It is not like Dereck Lively II will guard the 6-foot-4 point guard. He will still face Kyrie Irving or Luka Doncic, while Jayson Tatum sees more double-teams or Al Horford is matched up with the more athletic Lively. In all those scenarios, White should have only more room to work with.

And he does not need much room these days to score plenty.

Celtics vs Mavs star player prop bet

My best bet
Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 points (-105 at Pinnacle)

With Porzingis ruled out for Game 3, the rim will be that much more open for Dallas. Instinct might expect that to benefit Daniel Gafford or Lively on lobs, but Kyrie Irving needs to live in the lane, too.

The only player on the Dallas roster with a ring, Irving has yet to show up in these NBA Finals, scoring just 28 points total. He has, fortunately for this thought, kept shooting, taking 37 total shots.

Irving will not stop shooting, and he is too good of a player to expect him to continue to miss. Porzingis’s absence will give Irving more space to operate, and once he finds a rhythm, he could fly past this prop.

Celtics vs Mavs odds

Celtics vs Mavs live odds

Get the latest Celtics vs Mavs NBA playoff odds for Game 3

Celtics vs Mavs opening odds

• Spread: Boston +1.5 (-110) | Dallas-1.5 (+110)
• Moneyline: Boston +100 | Dallas -120
• Over/Under: Over 212.5 (-110) | Under 212.5 (-110)

Celtics vs Mavs spread and Over/Under analysis

• Despite losing the first two games of this series by 18 and then seven points, the Mavs opened as 1.5 to 2-point favorites late on Sunday night. That ticked as low as -1 at some sportsbooks early on Monday, but rallied to -1.5 by the end of your week's first cup of coffee.
  
  
• A line favoring Dallas is very much an exaggerated jump in the spread, given Boston was a 6.5- and 7-point favorite in the first two games. Adjusting that kind of spread for usual homecourt advantages would have made the Celtics 1.5- or 2-point favorites in Game 3. The incentive of the 2-0 deficit explains the additional Mavs’ expected edge.
  
  
• The total opened at 212.5 and ticked upward to 213 during the overnight before slipping back to its opening number throughout Monday.

Celtics vs Mavs trend

Since remaking the roster at the trade deadline, Dallas is 14-8 against the spread at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Mavs.

Celtics vs Mavs game info

Celtics vs Mavs latest injuries

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