Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction 8-11-24 MLB Picks

The Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox meet Sunday in MLB action from Fenway Park. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros prediction. This will be the final installment in a three-Game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Red Sox vs Astros pick.

Houston Astros Betting Preview

Early in the week the Astros took on the Texas Rangers. Houston lost the Monday Game but came back for wins in the next pair. After an 8-4 win over the Red Sox on Friday, in Game two Houston eked out a 5-4 win. Spencer Arrighetti finished on 7.0 innings with two earned and 13 Ks as starter.

In the starter slot for the Astros on Sunday it’ll be Hunter Brown. This year Brown is 9-7 with a 3.98 ERA in 23 Games (22 starts). Brown is 22-20 with a 4.35 ERA in 61 Games (53 starts) over his career.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Over on the Red Sox’ side, they took on the Kansas City Royals in their last set. Boston won the first two installments of that series before an 8-4 loss in Wednesday’s Game. On Saturday the Sox were out-hit 10-6 in the loss. Starter

Josh Winckowski finished with 3.0 innings and one earned run.
James Paxton will start for Boston on Sunday. This year Paxton is 9-3 with a 4.42 ERA in 20 starts. Paxton is 73-41 with a 3.77 ERA in 176 career starts. The Red Sox will face the Rangers and Orioles following this series.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last six games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Astros’ last four day games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 10 games as home underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last five road games against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Dominic Smith has recorded at least one Double in each of his four previous appearances with the Red Sox as underdogs against AL West opponents.
• Danny Jansen has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against the Astros after playing the previous day.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances with the Red Sox as home underdogs against AL West opponents.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one Single in each of the Red Sox’s last seven games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• James Paxton has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last nine appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• James Paxton has recorded a win in each of his last five home appearances against the Astros.
• Masataka Yoshida has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances in day games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last nine games as home underdogs.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one total base in each of the Red Sox’s last nine games as home underdogs.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 12 appearances against the Red Sox.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against the Red Sox.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 appearances against the Red Sox.
• Kyle Tucker has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Yordan Alvarez has hit at least one home run in three of the Astros’ last four games against AL opponents.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded an RBI in each of the Astros’ last four games as road favorites against AL East opponents.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded a Double in four of the Astros’ last five games as favorites against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Astros. Brown had a rough start in a loss to Pittsburgh on July 30 with four earned in 5.2 innings. In the other two of his last three starts though, Paxton is 1-0 with two earned in 12.0 innings. As for Paxton, he’s got eight earned over his last three starts in 15.1 innings, going 2-1 in that time.

On Saturday the Astros had a bit of trouble in the pen when Bryan Abreu gave up two earned in one inning, but everything worked out. The four homers contributed all of the RBI, however. It’d be nice to see a more varied offensive effort in the finale, but Houston should have a good shot regardless.