The Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs meet in Game 3 of a best-of-7 Eastern Conference, 1st-round series Wednesday. The series is tied 1-1. Puck drop from Scotiabank Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bruins vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Maple Leafs, who were +135 underdogs, beat the Bruins 3-2 in Game 2 Monday as the Under (6) hit.
The Maple Leafs allowed a power-play goal to Morgan Geekie midway through the 1st period, and it looked like same old Toronto in Boston. It was down, the TD Garden crowd was wild, and the Bruins looked to be on their way.
However, Toronto notched a goal from Max Domi just 14 seconds after the PPG, simmering the crowd down. While David Pastrnak gave the team a lead at 19:52 of the 1st period, the Leafs answered again.
Captain John Tavares scored a power-play goal with assists to Auston Matthews and Tyler Bertuzzi, and that leveled things at 2-2 going to the room after 2. Matthews connected for what stood up as the game-winning tally at 12:06, grabbing his 3rd point of the night to even the series. It was huge for Matthews, as he was blanked in Game 1.
Boston’s Brad Marchand had a helper in Game 2, and he now has 7 goals and 24 points in 23 career playoff games against Toronto.
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Bruins at Maple Leafs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Bruins -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Maple Leafs -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Bruins +1.5 (-275) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+220)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Bruins at Maple Leafs projected goalies
Jeremy Swayman (25-10-8, 2.53 GAA, .916 SV%, 3 SO in regular season) vs. Ilya Samsonov (23-7-8, 3.13 GAA, .890 SV%, 3 SO in regular season)
The Bruins went with the goaltender rotation in Game 2, going with Linus Ullmark instead of Game 1 winner Swayman. Ullmark wasn’t bad, per se, but he allowed 3 goals on 34 shots in the loss. Swayman turned aside 35 of the 36 shots he faced, and it’s hard to imagine we see the rotation continue if he gets the win in Game 3.
Samsonov was much more locked in for Game 2 than in the series opener. In Game 1, he allowed 4 goals on 24 shots, as he and the defense were snowed under. On Monday, Samsonov allowed just 2 goals on 29 shots, with one of them coming on the man advantage. He tracked the puck well in the final 2 periods, allowing nothing.
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Bruins at Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Prediction
Bruins 4, Maple Leafs 3
Moneyline
The BRUINS (-110) are worth a look on the road in Game 3.
The Maple Leafs (-110) have a lot of ghosts following them around. This team hasn’t won the Stanley Cup since 1967, and it has advanced past the 1st round just once (last season) since 2004. Whenever you think things are moving in a positive direction, this team seems to take 1 step backward.
Boston has won the past 3 skates in Toronto, and 2 of those victories since Jan. 14, 2023, have come by at least 3 goals. Until the Leafs can consistently win on home ice, back the more proven winner.
Puck line/Against the spread
The Maple Leafs +1.5 (-220) are just too expensive on home ice if you want some insurance and can’t trust Toronto straight up.
AVOID, and just play the moneyline instead if you like the home side.
Over/Under
OVER 6 (+100) is a bit of a risky play considering we saw a total of 11 goals, or 5.5 GPG, in the 1st 2 games in Boston.
The shift to Toronto could mean more scoring. The Under has cashed in 2 of the past 3 meetings at Scotiabank Arena, and the Leafs have seen the total go high at a 6-2-1 clip in the past 9 skates at home since March 16. Roll high, but go lightly.
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