Best NBA Player Props Today - April 3

Prop bet #1: If it ain't broke...

We're running it back with the D'Angelo Russell odds on Wednesday, with the exact same bet we placed on Tuesday: Russell Over 5.5 assists (-115). Even the juice is the same, so let's hope the final outcome is also the same, and we get a green checkmark on back-to-back days.

The Los Angeles Lakers will be taking on the Washington Wizards on Wednesday on the back end of a back-to-back. I know the Lakers need to keep winning to help their seeding in the Western Conference and try to get out of the 9 versus 10 game in the Play-In Tournament, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see LeBron James sit this one out against the Wizards.

If James sits, you're laughing with this Over 5.5 assists (-115) on Russell. The key to this bet, though, is that I like it either way; I'm not banking on James sitting. We have a probability gap we can exploit even if James does play, and I'm pricing Russell as if James is playing, but it's just an added bonus that this bet could receive an additional boost.

This bet is basically identical to why I attacked Russell's assists prop on Tuesday against the Raptors. The Wizards' defense is horrific, and they have absolutely no rim protection. Richaun Holmes missed Tuesday's game against the Milwaukee Bucks for the Wizards, and then Marvin Bagley left early with an injury. If you start working Russell and Anthony Davis in the pick-and-roll, Davis should have an easy time converting any potential assists from Russell at the rim on the pocket pass.

Russell is projected to have 6.8 assists on Wednesday against the Wizards, which allows us to price the Over 5.5 assists at -191, but it is available at bet365 at -115.

D'Angelo Russell prop: Over 5.5 assists (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Garland's a giver 

Betting on the Darius Garland odds on Wednesday has a similar vibe to going after the assists prop for Russell. I'm pricing this as if Donovan Mitchell is playing, but there is a chance he sits this one out after not playing on Tuesday in Utah. If Mitchell does sit, the probability gap on this bet will only grow, and you'll be in a great spot with the Over 6.5 assists (+100) in your pocket.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are on the back end of a back-to-back, but I don't think you'll see decreased minutes for Garland because of it. Make no mistake about it, the Cavaliers will make the playoffs, but the Orlando Magic are right on their heels for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. I doubt the Cavaliers want to face the Knicks once again in the first round, the team that eliminated them last season in the playoffs.

Garland will be facing the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday, and whether it's off the bounce or by working with Jarrett Allen in the pick-and-roll and on dribble handoffs, Garland will be able to constantly weave his way through this Suns defense and create shots for his teammates. When Garland played the Suns on March 11, he only had five assists but 14 potential assists, and his teammate Caris LeVert had 16 potential assists.

This really highlights how much the Suns defense struggled to contain these two guards and stop them from creating for their teammates. The Suns have struggled all season when it comes to giving up assists to opposing point guards. Even my arch-nemesis in the assists market, De'Aaron Fox, hit some Over bets for us against the Suns.

Garland is projected to drop 7.6 dimes against the Suns on Wednesday, which allows us to price the Over 6.5 assists at -162, but it is available at DraftKings at +100. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 24%.

Darius Garland prop: Over 6.5 assists (+100 at DraftKings)

Pet="">Pet="">Gameid="291600" propevent="NBA_GAME_PLAYER_ASSISTS" cta="" removeclickouts="false" defaultview="both" removeheading="true" playerid="130468">

Prop bet #3: Kis' kis' bang bang

The Wizards might be one of the worst teams in the NBA, but that doesn't mean we should completely ignore them over the final two weeks of the regular season. A green checkmark on a Wizards player prop is worth just as much as a green checkmark on a Denver Nuggets player prop.

Corey Kispert, the sharpshooter from Gonzaga, is seeing a ton of run over his last eight Games. In this stretch, Kispert is averaging 37.6 minutes per Game. On the season, Kispert is only averaging 24.9 minutes per Game, so the Wizards have really elevated his role down the stretch here.

This will be a common theme with several players and teams over the final two weeks of the regular season. We're going to see elevated roles for certain players, as teams use these final Games to help determine what they have in a certain player before the offseason begins. It's the same thing we saw with Dalano Banton and the Trail Blazers, where they still played him 30+ minutes in a 60-point loss.

So why Kispert's assists prop? Well, in these eight games with elevated minutes, Kispert is averaging 4.1 potential assists per game. That's a high number for someone trading with a total of 1.5. The potential assists for Kispert are there; they just aren't converting for him. Even if we look at his last four games, Kispert only has three assists, but he is averaging four potential assists per game.

At some point, water will find its level with how his potential assists are converting, and with the Corey Kispert odds trading at 1.5 (-135) against the Lakers on Wednesday, I'm willing to bet on it being tonight. Kispert is projected to have 2.3 assists on Wednesday against the Lakers, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -184, but it is available at bet365 at -135.

Corey Kispert prop: Over 1.5 assists (-135 at bet365)