Best NBA Player Props Today - April 1

Prop bet #1: KD lends helping hand

KD has fallen Under his assists total in five of his last six games, causing Kevin Durant odds to adjust from a total of 4.5 down to 3.5.  The adjustment down to 3.5 is a big reason why I'm attacking this number on Monday, especially with the Phoenix Suns taking on the New Orleans Pelicans.

We should see Herbert Jones as the primary defender on Devin Booker tonight, and Jones is not someone you want to attack on offense. This means the Suns will try to run the bulk of their offense through Durant. 

High usage and lots of touches mean more opportunities for assists, and I also like Jusuf Nurkic returning to the lineup for Phoenix as he helps Durant a lot with his assists.

We only have two weeks left in the NBA regular season, and when it comes to projecting minutes for player props, the Suns are not a team we have to worry about. They have the most difficult remaining schedule in the NBA and are fighting to get out of the Play-In Tournament in the Western Conference. The minutes will be there for Durant because they have to be.

Durant is projected to have 4.6 assists which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -191, but it's available at Caesars at -135. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 14%.

Kevin Durant prop: Over 3.5 assists (-135 at Caesars)

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Prop bet #2: Gary gives

The Orlando Magic are in the middle of a tough stretch in their schedule, not necessarily because of the opponents, but due to the number of games. This will be the Magic's fourth game in six days, and head coach Jamahl Mosley should be looking to dial back the minutes of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs over this stretch to ensure they maintain their health.

With Orlando facing the Trail Blazers on Monday as a 17.5-point favorite, I believe this is definitely a situation where Mosley will seek to steal some extra minutes from some of his role players. Gary Harris sat out Saturday's matchup against the Grizzlies for injury maintenance, so I could certainly see him playing 20+ minutes tonight regardless of the score against Portland.

In the NBA, there's always concern about a blowout diminishing minutes for starters in the fourth quarter. But Harris typically doesn't play in the fourth quarter for the Magic in a close game, even though he's a starter. When looking at Gary Harris' odds surrounding his assists prop, he's someone who thrives in games against weaker opponents where offense comes more easily.

Harris isn't breaking down a Timberwolves defense off the dribble and generating assists for his teammates. But against the Detroit Pistons and Trail Blazers, Harris can generate some assists, which is why I'm targeting the Over 1.5 on Monday.

Harris is projected to have 1.6 assists which falls just short of the two we need for a green checkmark, but the +175 price point is the reason I'm hitting the button on this wager. Based on our projection, we can price the Over 1.5 assists at +116.

Gary Harris prop: Over 1.5 assists (+175 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: DeMar Assists

I know the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks don't scream 'big game' on April 1, but this is actually a very important matchup. The Bulls are sitting in ninth place in the Eastern Conference standings, and the Hawks are in 10th. Whoever finishes in the nine spot will host the first Play-In game, and an Atlanta win could help close the gap.

With all that said, this is a Chicago organization that decided to hang on to all of its pieces at the NBA trade deadline and make a push for the playoffs. There's a lot of pressure to make the playoffs for the Bulls, so what I'm trying to say here is, DeMar DeRozan odds are worth a look.

The bottom line is the Hawks aren't going to win games with their defense, and the Bulls are going to run actions to get DeRozan as many touches as possible and find him mismatches, which won't be hard.

The high usage rate for him should lead to more potential assists, and his teammates shouldn't have a hard time converting his potential assists against this Hawks defense. If the Bulls can get the right mismatches onto DeRozan, we should also see some double teams from Atlanta which also generates more potential assists.

With DeRozan's assists prop trading at 4.5, we can get after this number in this matchup against the Hawks. DeRozan is projected to have 5.5 dimes which allows us to price the Over 4.5 at -172, but it's available at -125 at bet365.

DeMar DeRozan prop: Over 4.5 assists (-125 at bet365)