The San Diego Padres failed to live up to preseason expectations last year — they were +900 to win it all in March 2023 — by missing the playoffs after going to the 2022 NLCS. San Diego was a -429 favorite to make the postseason after signing 2B Xander Bogaerts, but its 82-80 record obviously wasn’t enough to make the cut.
The Padres have made several interesting moves this offseason, including trading OF Juan Soto to the New York Yankees, losing LHP Josh Hader — and potentially LHP Blake Snell — in free agency, and bringing in RHP Dylan Cease from the Chicago White Sox. Let’s analyze the San Diego Padres’ World Series odds, along with their projected win total, playoff, division and NL odds as we make our expert MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego Padres World Series odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday, March 17 at 5:22 a.m. ET.
Odds: +4000 (bet $100 to win $4,000)
The Padres are tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the 16th-shortest odds to win the World Series, so the market is saying that San Diego is basically a middle-of-the-pack team.
At +4000, the Padres have an implied probability of winning the World Series of 2.44%, and to be profitable, you would only have to hit bets at these odds once every 40 times.
The Arizona Diamondbacks were +8000 to win the World Series entering last season, and that became a great bet once they won the NLCS.
I’m going to PASS, but last season was a great example of how these long-shot futures can potentially make for good positions. However, don’t forget that these futures markets do have a higher theoretical hold than their 2-way counterparts, making them harder to beat long-term.
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San Diego Padres playoff odds
Will they make the playoffs: Yes +135 | No -165
According to Statmuse.com, the Padres went 20-7 from Sept. 1-Oct. 1 to finish last year’s regular season. While I’m obviously not projecting them to keep that pace and finish with 120 wins, it is a sign of this team’s ceiling. Besides, they did beat the Dodgers to go to the NLCS just 2 seasons ago.
BET YES (+135).
San Diego Padres win total
Over/Under: 83.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
This is a great number to bet. It basically comes down to a simple question: Will the Padres be 1.5 games better than they were last year?
San Diego was projected to win 93.5 Games last season and fell surprisingly short of that mark. I don’t like the idea of betting on a lineup that consists of Bogaerts, 3B Manny Machado, and OF Fernando Tatís Jr. to win fewer than 84 Games in back-to-back seasons.
BET OVER 83.5 (-110).
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To win NL West Division
- Los Angeles Dodgers -500 (bet $500 to win $100)
- Arizona Diamondbacks +1000 (bet $100 to win $1,000)
- San Diego Padres +1100 (bet $100 to win $1,100)
- San Francisco Giants +1400 (bet $100 to win $1,400)
- Colorado Rockies +20000 (bet $100 to win $20,000)
Again, I’m not a huge fan of betting into multi-way markets. With the Dodgers being priced as -500 favorites — which is actually very low compared to other books — there is no value on any of the long shots.
PASS.
To win National League
Odds: +2000 (bet $100 to win $2,000)
The Diamondbacks’ odds to pull this off last season were +4000, and they actually did it.
This isn’t a ridiculous bet by any means, but I’m going to PASS. Bet the Padres’ playoff odds and/or their win total. Risking $100 to win $2,000 just isn’t enough profit for what is projected to be a middle-of-the-pack team.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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