Bass Pro Shops Night Race 2023 Odds, Predictions & NASCAR Picks

Bristol, baby! Thunder Valley. The Last Great Colosseum.

Whatever we call it, Bristol Motor Speedway is one of the classic NASCAR tracks on the schedule. While the surface and the seating capacity has changed over time, the feel of the track and the excitement of a Bristol race weekend hasn’t. It is still one of the best tracks on the schedule. Now that it’s the elimination race in the Round of 16 in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, we can ratchet things up a bit…okay, maybe more than just a bit.

How are we betting NASCAR Playoff drivers? How has Bristol raced in past races? Are the new Goodyear tires going to matter on Saturday night? What is the betting strategy for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race? You can find all of the answers plus winner predictions and prop bets for Saturday’s Bristol race below!

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Bristol track history and trends

You would think that at a track like Bristol — a short, high-banked, oval — that track position would be highly important. That’s not necessarily the case. In the last 11 concrete races here (so not including the dirt races the last 2 years), 5 drivers have won from outside the top 10. That’s right; nearly half of winners have started 11th or worse — all the way back to P24 in the grid. Do we expect that to be the case again this weekend? Well, that depends on how much faith you put into tire-fall-off. Goodyear has designed a tire that should fall off in terms of lap times over the long runs, which should help shuffle the deck. It will also likely induce more tire-related cautions. Last year, in this same aero package, there were 11 cautions. In fact, over the last 8 races half of them have had double-digit cautions. The more cautions, the more chance for issues to shuffle the running order on pit road.

Betting strategies for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race

How are we approaching the night race at Bristol for betting? That’s the money question, isn’t it? It’s not as straightforward as we would like to admit. We can’t just go based on track history, since this year’s aero package is a tad different than previous year’s. Then there’s the new right side tires that will help with lap time fall off and Bristol not matching up with most other tracks on the NASCAR schedule. With all of that, the strategy we’re using is combining intermediate races over the last 2 years with recent runs at Bristol. When we do that, we get a honed group of drivers in the betting pool who have been consistently good at Bristol — which isn’t a track that favors one-off winners all that often.

Winner predictions for the NASCAR Bristol race

Kyle Larson +550 (BetMGM)

Larson has been great in this package all year. When we couple that with his success — and seemingly never-ending speed — at Bristol, it’s not a shock he’s the favorite. The only driver in the field to equal Larson’s success in the last dozen similar package races is William Byron. However, no one equals Larson’s success over the last 10 Bristol concrete races (6.3 average finish).

Chase Elliott +1100 (DraftKings)

While Elliott is not in the driver playoffs, he is still in the owner playoffs. That’s arguably a more important thing for the team, as there’s more money attached to that. A win here would guarantee him moving on to the Round of 12 in those playoffs. Although he has not won yet this year, he is running well with a top-10 finish in 5 of the last 6 intermediate races. Elliott has also historically run well at Bristol with the second-best average Running Position of any driver in the last 10 concrete races here. 

Kyle Busch +1200 (BetMGM)

I’ve gotten in the habit of calling it Buschtol for the simple fact that Kyle Busch dominates at Bristol. While it’s been a tad lean by his standards in the last few races here, Busch is always a threat. For example, he is the only driver in the field with multiple wins here in the last 10 races and he owns by far the most top-5 finishes. Tyler Reddick looked fast in this RCR car here a year ago; now add Busch’s expertise and we’re looking good.

Kevin Harvick +1200 (FanDuel)

This is Harvick’s last shot to win at The Last Great Colosseum and he looks in good form. Sure he has not been as dominant as we have previously seen, but he is still as consistent as ever. Over the last 12 intermediate package races Harvick has finished outside the top 12 just twice and over the last 10 races at Bristol he has finished outside the top 13 just once. See…. Consistency. That’s the kind of thing you need to have a shot at winning at Bristol. Now we add in how well he does in races with tire-fall-off and Harvick becomes even more intriguing.

Chris Buescher +1300 (BetRivers)

We can’t deny the speed that Buescher has had in his 17 car of late. After all, he is a 3-time winner this year. Buescher now comes to a track that he won at a year ago, without even being a playoff driver. So we have comfortability, speed and a team with success at the track at middling odds. How can we turn this down? As a side note, Brad Keselowski has been similarly quick but is going off at +850 — so we’re also getting value here, too.

Erik Jones +6000 (FanDuel)

We have learned to take Jones on tracks he’s been good at over the last 2 years and it has typically worked out. Jones has posted 3 top-8 finishes in the last four Bristol concrete races and is coming off back-to-back top 10s in this package. Let’s not forget how good he is on tracks with tire wear, which we expect this weekend. He has won as a longest in the playoffs before, ahem last year, so why can’t he do it again?

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Best prop bets for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race

Kyle Busch Top-10 Finish -160 (Caesars)

As stated above, this is arguably his best track in his career. He’s won here more than any other track and while we don’t need a win, it’s good to note. In the last four intermediate package races, Busch has posted four top-11 finishes. Add his six top-five finishes in the last 10 Bristol concrete races and we’re looking good. If you want a bit longer odds, Busch is being posted at +200 for a top-five finish at BetMGM.

Ryan Blaney Top-10 Finish -135 (Caesars)

Blaney has been known to lead a bunch of laps at Bristol and then nab top-10 finishes. He’s nabbed five such finishes in the last 10 concrete races here. He also has an advantage that most don’t — he ran the tire test for Goodyear in June. He knows, perhaps better than anyone, what the tires will do and how to manage that during the race. It’s looking like another strong finish for Blaney at Bristol.

Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +230 (Caesars)

Like we stated above, he’s posted three top-eight finishes in the last four races here and back-to-back top-10s in this package. The implied odds on this bet are just over a 30-percent chance for something he’s done 50-percent of the time in the last 10 Bristol races and the last dozen intermediate package races too. Also known as built in value.

Chase Briscoe Top-10 Finish +350 (Caesars)

In the last two concrete Bristol races Briscoe has two top-14 finishes. That’s a start. If we add in his good run at Darlington on tires that had fall off we’re looking better. Finally, look at the speed he’s had at intermediate races over the last several races and there’s a pretty good shot that he can sneak in a top-10 finish at a track he loves racing.

Chris Buescher -114 vs. Martin Truex Jr. (BetRivers)

This track has been terrible for Truex in his career. Meanwhile, Buescher won here last year and has a ton of speed in this package coming into this race. That fact that this kind of a matchup is this close in odds is a bonus for us as well. Remember, all we need is Buescher to finish one spot better than MTJ to win the bet.

Chris Buescher -104 vs. Christopher Bell (FanDuel)

Buescher has simply been faster than Bell of late. That’s mainly what this comes down to. There’s also the fact that Buescher won this race a year ago, when he wasn’t in the playoffs. The jump in speed in the intermediate package for RFK has been real and if you want to you can also take Brad Keselowski -115 vs. Christopher Bell on DraftKings.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. -115 vs. Michael McDowell (BetMGM)

The track records are in Stenhouse’s favor to start with, but when we look at the last dozen similar races in terms of packages used, it’s more in his favor. Stenhouse has more top-20s, top-15s, and top-10s than McDowell. Both are in positions to need a good race to move on in the playoffs but this plays more into Stenhouse’s hands than McDowell.

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