The Atlanta Braves (43-32) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (39-37) Monday in the opener of a 3-game set at Busch Stadium at 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Braves won 4-2 last year
The Braves took 2 of 3 from the New York Yankees over the weekend with a 3-1 win Sunday. They’ve won 5 of 6 and 8 of 10 as they look to hit their stride despite the major injuries they’ve suffered. Braves 3B Austin Riley‘s bat is coming to life with a .326 BA, 4 HR and 9 RBIs over the last 15 days.
The Cards completed a 3-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants Sunday with a 5-3 victory. RHP Sonny Gray took a perfect game into the 7th inning before the Giants got on the board. OFs Brendan Donovan (.362 BA, 4 HR, 11 RBIs) and Alec Burleson (.333 BA, 3 HR, 8 RBIs) have powered the offense over the last 15 days.
Cardinals C Willson Contreras (forearm) will be activated from the IL Monday vs Atlanta, if he passes a medical evaluation.
Braves at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach vs. RHP Lance Lynn
Schwellenbach (1-2, 4.99 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 21 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 2-1 home victory Tuesday against Detroit Tigers
- Has never faced Cardinals before
- Home/road splits: 2 road starts: 0-1, 6.75 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 vs. 2 home starts: 1-1, 3.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
Lynn (2-3, 4.08 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 75 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 9-8 loss in 10 innings Tuesday at Miami Marlins
- Last 5 starts vs. Braves: 3-2, 4.55 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 18 K in 27 2/3 IP
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Braves at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:56 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Cardinals +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+135) | Cardinals +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Braves at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 6, Braves 5
Moneyline
The Cards are averaging 6.3 R/game over their last 6 games, and they’re going to need all of that to outlast the Braves. I think this is the only game in the series the Cards have a legitimate shot at winning with RHP Reynaldo Lopez and LHP Chris Sale starting the next 2.
Lynn isn’t going deep, and he has seen at least 4 runs on the board, earned or unearned, in 6 of his last 7 starts. The CARDINALS +100 find a way to mash just enough.
Run line/Against the spread
Take your pick here, but I like LANCE LYNN UNDER 16.5 OUTS (-110) and LANCE LYNN UNDER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS (-155).
Lynn has not recorded 17 outs in 4 straight starts and hasn’t done it in 2 straight vs. Atlanta. He also has 6+ K’s once in his last 7 GS.
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Over/Under
It’s slated to be 93 degrees with an 8-mph wind blowing left to right. The Braves are 5-4-1 O/U in their last 10, and the Cards are 5-5. The Over has cashed in 7 of the last 10 meetings against one another.
With the heat, the pitching matchup and the Cards’ offense pulling its weight, we’re going OVER 8.5 (-115).
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