The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals meet in Game 3 of their best-of-5 ALDS Wednesday at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Playoffs series: Tied 1-1; Yankees won regular-season series 5-2
New York posted a 6-5 win in Game 1 as a heavy favorite (-200), although Kansas City covered the run line as an underdog as the Over (8) connected. In Game 2, the Royals surprised the Yankees as moderate underdogs (+140) as the Under (7.5) held on.
In Game 2, LHP Cole Ragans allowed a run in 4 IP, while the Royals bullpen allowed a single run in 5 IP. Veteran C Salvador Perez smacked a solo HR for the team’s only extra-base hit.
The Royals are 3-1 in the postseason, all on the road, and each victory has been as an underdog. The Under is 3-1 in those 4 games, too. This will be Kansas City’s 1st home game since Sept. 22, and 1st postseason home game since Nov. 1, 2015, when the Royals topped the New York Mets in 5 games to win the World Series.
Yankees at Royals projected starters
RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Seth Lugo
Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) made 16 regular-season starts. He had a 1.18 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 85 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 6-4 home victory vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 29
- 2024 road splits (regular season): 3-3, 1.39 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 17 BB, 46 K in 8 starts
- Career vs. Royals: 2-0, 3.29 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 4 appearances (2 starts)
- Didn’t face the Royals in 2024
- Career postseason: 0-2, 11.57 ERA (2 1/3 IP, 1 K, 3.00 WHIP) in 3 relief appearances
Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA) made 33 regular-season starts. He had a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 206 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H (1 solo HR), 1 BB, 6 K in 2-1 road victory in Game 2 of Wild Card round vs. Baltimore Orioles
- 2024 home splits (regular season): 7-6, 3.36 ERA (107 IP, 40 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 25 BB, 83 K in 17 starts
- Career vs. Yankees: 5-2, 2.55 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 in 14 appearances (4 starts)
- 2024 vs. Yankees: 1-1, 2.57 ERA (14 IP, 4 ER), .224 opponents’ batting average, 1 BB, 14 K in 2 starts
- Career postseason: 0-0, 1.42 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 9 K, 1.42 WHIP) in 4 appearances (1 start)
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Yankees at Royals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 5:47 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Royals -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Royals +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Yankees at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 4, Yankees 3
Moneyline
The ROYALS (-105) are a sharp play as short ‘dogs at home in Game 3 behind Lugo, who was sharp during the regular season with 16 victories.
The Yankees (-115) have the payroll, and they have the big names, but the starting pitching is a little shaky. Trust Lugo way more than Schmidt, especially in front of a raucous crowd hungry for playoff baseball.
Run line/Against the spread
The Royals +1.5 (-175) are only worth playing lightly if you’re super conservative, and you just can’t bring yourself to play against the Yankees -1.5 (+145) straight up.
If you like Kansas City, though, just play it straight up.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The Over-Under has split in the 2 games in this playoff series, but the Under is 3-1 in the past 4 meetings since Sept. 10.
The Yankees had to hop a plane for the 1st time since Sept. 22. The Under is 6-3 in the past 9 games on the road for New York.
For the Royals, the Under is 3-1 in the postseason, while going 14-4 in the past 18 games since Sept. 10, a streak which started in New York.
For more Sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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