The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 5 of the best-of-7 ALCS Saturday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
ALCS: Yankees lead 3-1; Yankees won regular-season series 4-2
After a wild Game 3, it seemed like nothing could top it. But, Game 4 was pretty wild in its own right.
The Yankees had a 6-2 lead at the 7th-inning stretch, but the Guardians posted 3 in the bottom of the frame to make things interesting. A squibber to the pitcher ended up being too hard to handle, and Cleveland tied it up heading to the 9th in front of a raucous crowd at Progressive Field.
However, the Yankees managed to get to closer Emmanuel Clase for a 2nd straight night as he allowed 2 ER and 3 H in his inning of work to take the loss in Jose Mesa-esque fashion when it mattered most.
DH Giancarlo Stanton had a titanic 3-run HR in the top of the 6th for New York’s biggest hit, while 1B Josh Naylor collected 3 RBIs and 3B Jose Ramirez drove in a pair of runs for Cleveland’s big blows.
Now, New York is just a win away from punching its ticket to the World Series, while Cleveland is on the brink of elimination, needing 3 straight victories.
Yankees at Guardians projected starters
LHP Carlos Rodon vs. RHP Tanner Bibee
Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA) made 32 regular-season starts. He had a 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 175 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H (1 solo HR), 0 BB, 9 K in 5-2 home victory in Game 1 of ALCS Monday
- 2024 road splits (regular season): 7-7, 4.69 ERA (94 IP, 49 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 30 BB, 104 K, .261 opponents’ batting average in 18 starts
- Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 8-5, 2.81 ERA (125 IP, 39 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 19 starts (21 appearances)
- Didn’t face Cleveland in 2024 regular season
- 2024 postseason: 1-1, 4.66 ERA (9 2/3 IP), 1.03 WHIP, 16 K in 2 starts
- Career postseason: 1-2, 6.57 ERA (12 1/3 IP), 1.46 WHIP, 19 K in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance
Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 173 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 1 1/3 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-3 road loss in Game 2 of ALCS Tuesday
- 2024 home splits (regular season): 5-4, 4.15 ERA (89 IP, 41 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 22 BB, 99 K in 16 starts
- Didn’t face New York in 2024 regular season
- Career postseason: 0-1, 3.60 ERA (10 IP), 1.70 WHIP, 11 K in 3 starts in 2024
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Yankees at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Guardians +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Yankees 3
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (+100) are a solid play in this elimination game. Either way, it is likely to be the final game of the season in Cleveland barring a miraculous comeback in this series.
Cleveland’s offense has risen to the occasion at Progressive Field in the 2 games so far, especially in the late innings, but the bullpen has let it down at times, especially in Game 4. That’s the risk here.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a super conservative bettor, GUARDIANS +1.5 (-175) is not priced out of line for some insurance. Ultimately, it might be the better play, but if you like Cleveland, the better value is playing it straight up behind its ace Bibee.
Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-120) is the lean in Game 4, but go lightly.
With Cleveland’s season on the line, we could see the offense tighten up a bit. And, for New York, it could struggle to plate as many runs, too. It’s always toughest to get that final win in a series. Look for good pitching, solid defense and runs to be at a premium.
For more Sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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