The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 4 of the best-of-7 ALCS Friday. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
ALCS: Yankees lead 2-1; Yankees won regular-season series 4-2
New York dropped its first game of the series with a 7-5 tenth-inning loss Thursday as a -102 underdog. CF Aaron Judge (1-for-5, 2 RBIs) and DH Giancarlo Stanton (1-for-3, 1 RBI) hit back-to-back 8th-inning homers off All-Star RP Emmanuel Clase to give the Yankees a temporary 4-3 lead.
Trailing 5-3, Guardians RF Jhonkensy Noel hit a pinch-hit 2-run HR with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th to extend the Game for Cleveland. With 2 outs and 1 on in the bottom of the 10th, 1B David Fry cashed Guardians (-106) tickets with a walk-off 2-run homer to left-center field.
Yankees at Guardians projected starters
RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Gavin Williams
Gil (15-7, 3.50 ERA) made 29 regular-season starts. The rookie had a 1.19 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 151 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 9-4 home setback against Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 28
- 2024 vs. Guardians: 0-0, 1 home start (Aug. 20), 3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 6 BB, 3 K in 9-5 loss in 12 innings
- Career vs. Guardians: 0-1, 6.14 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 6 H, 10 BB, 9 K in 2 starts
Williams (3-10, 4.86 ERA) made 16 regular-season starts. He had a 1.37 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 76 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K in 2-1 loss at St. Louis Cardinals Sept. 22
- Career vs. Yankees: 0-1, 1 road start (Aug. 22), 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 6-0 loss
Yankees at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Guardians +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Guardians 3
Moneyline
PASS.
There is better value on the Yankees’ run line.
Run line/Against the spread
BET YANKEES -1.5 (+145).
New York has had a clear advantage in this series, scoring 5 or more runs in each game, while Cleveland has scored 3 or fewer in 2 of the 3.
Cleveland was able to rally behind its home crowd Thursday, but it will be unable to do the same Friday. With Gil on the mound, expect the Guardians to struggle on offense.
Each of New York’s last 3 wins have come by 2 or more runs.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-115).
The Yankees have a powerful offense. They’ve scored 5 or more runs in 3 straight games and are 5-3-1 O/U in their last 9.
Cleveland may not be able to keep up Friday, but expect it to score enough to tip the total. It has scored 3 or more runs in 4 of its last 5 games.
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