The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers continue their best-of-3 AL Wild Card Series with Game 2 in Houston Wednesday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Playoff series: Tigers lead 1-0; Regular-season series: Astros won 4-2
The Tigers took Game 1 of the series 3-1 Tuesday — as +128 road underdogs — behind a sensational performance from SP Tarik Skubal and 4 relievers. Detroit’s ace tossed 6 shutout innings around 4 hits and 1 walk with 6 K’s before the bullpen finished the job, holding Houston to 1 run over the final 3 innings as the Under (6.5) cashed.
The Astros scored in the bottom of the 9th — C Yainer Diaz RBI single — and had the tying run on 2nd with 1 out, but a flyout to left and a lineout to 1st base 2 batters later with the bases loaded ended the game.
Detroit scored all 3 of its runs in the top of the 2nd inning on consecutive, 2-out RBI singles by C Jake Rogers, SS Trey Sweeney and 3B Matt Vierling off of Houston SP Framber Valdez (4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K).
The Tigers, who made the playoffs for the first time in 10 years, were among the hottest teams in baseball over the last few months — 17-11 in August and 17-8 in September. They won 10 of their last 13 games, including 6 of the last 8, to close out the season. The Tigers finished 88-74 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season, tying for 2nd best in the majors, according to Teamrankings.com. Cincinnati was 1st (90-72), followed by Detroit, Baltimore, Kansas City and Washington — all 88-74.
The AL Central champion Astros, who are in their 8th consecutive postseason and 9th in the last 10 years, now have their backs up against the wall in this best-of-3 setup. While they finished 83-78 ATS, they also ended the regular season on a high note, beating the Cleveland Guardians in the final 2 games and winning 6 of their last 9.
Houston was 46-35 at home before Tuesday’s loss, while Detroit was 43-38 on the road.
Tigers at Astros projected starters
LHP Tyler Holton vs. RHP Hunter Brown
Holton (7-2, 2.19 ERA), set to make his playoff debut, made 66 appearances, including 9 starts in 2024. He has a 0.78 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 across 94 1/3 innings.
- Last outing: No-decision, 1 IP in relief, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 4-1 home win vs. Chicago White Sox Friday
- Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 4-3 victory at Baltimore Orioles Sept. 22
- 2024 road stats: 3-2, 1.54 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 0.65 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 36 appearances, including 6 starts
- Career vs. Astros: 0-0, 6.35 ERA (5 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 6 H, 2 HR, 0 BB, 3 K in 3 appearances
- 2024 vs. Astros: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (4 IP, 0 ER), 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 2 relief outings
Brown (11-9, 3.49 ERA) made 31 appearances and 30 starts this season. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 170 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 6-1 home loss vs. Seattle Mariners Sept. 23
- 2024 home stats: 5-5, 3.35 ERA (86 IP, 32 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 15 starts
- Career vs. Tigers: 3-0, 2.93 ERA (27 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 in 4 starts and 1 relief outing
- 2024 vs. Tigers: 1-0, 0.75 ERA (12 IP, 1 ER), 10 H, 1 HR, 0 BB, 16 K in 2 games, including 1 start (7 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 9 K in 4-0 home shutout June 14)
- Career in postseason: 0-0, 1.69 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, 7 K in 7 relief appearances since 2022
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Tigers at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:50 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Tigers +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Astros -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Tigers +1.5 (-160) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Tigers at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Tigers 1
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s no value here. Houston (-165) is too expensive of a favorite to play to win outright on the moneyline. Similarly, Detroit (+140) is a bit risky of an underdog to play as well.
Look to the spread for better value.
Run line/Against the spread
BET ASTROS -1.5 (+135).
The Astros won and covered in 4 of their last 8 home games. Their offense struggled Tuesday, but they have scored at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 9 games. They should be able to find some traction Wednesday, especially as they’re set to take on many Tigers relievers. Even more impressive regarding the run line: Houston is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 wins.
The Tigers lost their last 2 games of the regular season — as big favorites vs. the lowly Chicago White Sox — yielding 13 runs in those 2 games. They received a masterpiece from Skubal in Game 1, which will be tough to repeat.
Expect Houston to prevail behind its pitching advantage Wednesday. TAKE ASTROS -1.5 (+135).
Over/Under
BET OVER 7.5 (-115).
The Astros didn’t get much going Tuesday, but they have had a consistent offense over the last several weeks. In 3 of their last 8 regular-season Games, they scored at least 8 runs and went 4-3-1 O/U.
The Tigers have a similar story. While they only scored in 1 inning Tuesday — though the 3-run inning was enough — they have been more consistent as of late, scoring at least 4 runs in 4 of the last 5 regular-season games.
Look for both offenses to find some rhythm in Game 2. BACK OVER 7.5 (-115).
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