Warriors vs Thunder Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

Two of the best teams in the Western Conference meet on Sunday when the Golden State Warriors travel to Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

With Oklahoma City having one of the best defenses in the NBA, Golden State’s biggest star may find himself in for a tough matchup.

I expect Stephen Curry to struggle in my Warriors vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, November 10.  

Warriors vs Thunder prediction

My best bet
Stephen Curry Under 23.5 points (-105 at bet365)

My analysis

Stephen Curry is coming off his least productive Game of the season and that may continue against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

On Friday night against the undefeated Cleveland Cavaliers, Curry put up just 12 points in a 19-point loss. While the Cavs are the best team in the league, the Thunder aren’t far behind and I expect Curry to have another less effective game.

In six games this season, he’s finished with Under 23.5 points four times and is averaging his fewest points per game (19.7) since his third season in the NBA in 2011. Could Curry finally be taking a step back?

It’s not so much poor play, but reduced minutes as Steve Kerr tries to keep his 36-year-old, 10-time All-Star fresh. Curry is playing a career-low 26.8 minutes per game and has only topped 28 minutes in one outing this season. 

As a result, he’s taking more than three fewer threes per game this season (8.2) than last season (11.8) and more than five fewer field goals — 13.8 this season vs. 19.5 last season.

So between his reduced minutes and decreased usage, it’s no surprise to see his production decrease early in the season. Now factor in his opponent Sunday night, and I have a hard time understanding why his point total is set at 23.5.

Oklahoma City is allowing the fewest points per game in the NBA (100.2) and has the No. 1 defensive rating (97.2). It’s going to be hard for Curry to create from deep against this defense, too.

The Thunder are allowing the second-fewest threes per game in the league (11.3) and the lowest 3-point percentage (30.9%). And it’s not as if it gets any easier inside the arc with OKC allowing the fewest twos per game (24.1) and the lowest 2-point percentage (47.3%).

With Curry taking on a smaller role and the Thunder’s ferocious defense, it’s difficult to project him scoring 24-plus points.

Warriors vs Thunder same-game parlay

Curry Under 23.5 points

Holmgren Over 9.5 rebounds

Williams Over 1.5 steals

+525 at bet365

Oklahoma City has become one of the best teams in the league thanks to its young talent flourishing. Chief among the Thunders’ young stars is Chet Holmgren. 

The 22-year-old looks even better in his sophomore season and leads the team in rebounds with 9.2 per game. While he’s only topped 9.5 in four of nine games, the Warriors are a perfect team to juice his stats against.

Golden State is allowing the sixth-most rebounds per game in the NBA (46.0) and the third-most to centers (18.06). And he’s not the only Oklahoma City player from the 2022 NBA Draft poised to shine.

Jalen Williams is third in the league in steals per game (2.0) and has had at least two in six of his last seven games. His hot play on the defensive end should continue against the Warriors

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Warriors vs Thunder odds

Warriors vs Thunder live odds

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Warriors vs Thunder opening odds

• Spread: Warriors +7.5 | Thunder -7.5
• Moneyline: Warriors +245 | Thunder -305
• Over/Under: Over 227.5 | Under 227.5

Odds courtesy of bet365

Warriors vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis

• Oklahoma City opened as a 7.5-point favorite with most sportsbooks shifting down and offering the Thunder at -6.5 or -7.
• Mark Daigneault and Steve Kerr’s teams are among the best ATS with both Oklahoma City and Golden State 7-2.
• The Over/Under opened between 226.5 and 227.5, and it has since come up to between 228 and 228.5.
• The Warriors are one of the best Over bets in the NBA at 6-3, but Oklahoma City is one of the worst at 4-5.

Warriors vs Thunder trend

The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 53 of their last 92 games (+11.20 Units / 11% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Thunder.

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