Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets - Tuesday, March 26

Prop bet #1: Karlsson crash continues

Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Erik Karlsson has been in an offensive freefall with just three assists through his past 14 games. The Pens land in a tough matchup Tuesday, with the Carolina Hurricanes pacing the NHL in Corsi For percentage (59.2%) and allowing the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.26) at 5-on-5. Carolina has a league-best 87.5 penalty-kill percentage, too.

The Erik Karlsson odds in the points market continue to misprice the reigning Norris Trophy winner and fail to accurately account for Pittsburgh’s lack of scoring depth and high-end talent. Pittsburgh is mired in a 3-9-2 slump with its only wins coming against the Columbus Blue Jackets, San Jose Sharks, and Detroit Red Wings, after all.

Erik Karlsson prop: Under 0.5 points (-115 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Pacioretty maxed out

The writing's on the wall for Washington Capitals veteran Max Pacioretty. He’s been held to just three assists through his past 11 games, and he’s only been on the ice for 1.37 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 during the slump. Additionally, a quick peek at his skating and shooting speed showcases a player below the 50th percentile in both. 

Making matters worse, the Caps will have multiple regulars out of the lineup Tuesday, and Pacioretty will remain in a bottom-six role with projected linemates Hendrix Lapierre and Michael Sgarbossa. The trio have no experience playing together, and Pacioretty and Lapierre have been on the ice for a single goal across 80:15 of 5-on-5 time this season.

I also value these Max Pacioretty odds because the Detroit Red Wings are a different team with captain and No. 1 center Dylan Larkin in the lineup, and this will be his third game since returning from a lower-body injury Thursday.

Max Pacioretty prop: Under 0.5 points (-130 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Selling Maccelli

Arizona Coyotes winger Matias Maccelli continues to skate in a bottom-six role and is mired in a lengthy scoring slump. He’s missed the scoresheet in eight of the past 10 Games and has been on the ice for just 5.64 expected goals during the stretch.

Obviously, the Columbus Blue Jackets are a perfect matchup to snap out of the scoring skid, but I have no confidence in Maccelli because he isn’t projected to skate with capable offensive linemates. Additionally, he only logged 12:52 of ice time against the Dallas Stars on Sunday.

I’ll continue to target these Matias Maccelli odds as long as he’s playing a depth role for the Coyotes. His gig on the No. 2 power-play unit isn’t offering scoring opportunities, either, and Maccelli has been a mess at five-on-five with a 42.7 Corsi For percentage and 42.5 expected goals percentage.

Matias Maccelli prop: Under 0.5 points (-115 at Bet99)