Thunder vs Raptors Picks, Predictions & Odds 3-22-2024 - NBA

The Toronto Raptors are the NBA’s version of the, “Stop, stop, he’s already dead,” meme, as fans pray for a merciful end to this season. They enter tonight’s action having lost eight straight and 10 of their last 11, going just 2-9 against the spread. 

Unfortunately, that mercy won’t come tonight as the NBA odds have the Raps as whopping 15-point underdogs as they welcome Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder to town.

Does Toronto have any hope of keeping this close or will OKC hand the Raps another ugly loss? I break it all down and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Raptors on Friday, March 22.

Thunder vs Raptors odds

Thunder vs Raptors predictions

If the Toronto Raptors had the option to press a button and end the season today, I’m betting they’d press it. And why wouldn’t they?

They already know they will be building around Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett, and with all of the injuries, there doesn’t seem to be much more they can take away from this season.

Then there is the actual product on the court. Toronto comes into tonight’s matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder having covered the spread just twice over their last 11 Games (1-10 straight up). The losses have gone from bad to worse, starting with the fact that all three of the above cogs are out. Barnes is sidelined with a hand injury while Quickley and Barrett are both out for personal matters. That’s in addition to starting center Jakob Poeltl already being on the shelf.

So, the question is, who’s going to get buckets for the Raps? No one. Not with any consistency.

The Raptors rank dead last in offensive rating without Barnes, who broke his hand against the Warriors on March 1, while ranking 27th in effective field goal percentage, putting up just 105.6 points per Game this month.

But it has gotten even worse without RJ and IQ. Toronto hasn’t put up more than 104 points in any of its last four games and that trend will continue tonight against the Thunder, even in a potential blowout.

OKC has been one of the best teams in basketball all season, ranking second in net rating behind only the juggernaut Boston Celtics, and enter this game winners of six of the last seven games. 

On the defensive end of the floor, the Thunder use their length and athleticism to disrupt shots and passing lanes. As a result, OKC is one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, ranking fifth in D-rating and opponent eFG%, and leads the Association in forcing turnovers. 

This all adds up to another long night at the office for the Raptors. Their team total sits at 106.5, and while this is down from previous recent games, they haven’t done anything to prove they can go Over the adjusted number. Particularly, against a good defensive team like the Thunder.

My best bet: Raptors team total Under 106.5 (-105 at PointsBet)

Thunder vs Raptors same-game parlay

While the Raptors offense has fallen off a cliff the last few weeks, the defense has been bad for even longer. Toronto has the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA since January 1 and is struggling in several areas, which includes getting burned by teams willing to make the extra pass.

The Raps rank 26th in opponent assists per possession. They are also thin at the center position, so OKC big Chet Holmgren will have the opportunity to make some plays tonight. His assists prop is sitting at 2.5 and he’s averaging 2.7 per game this season. At plus money, the Over is worth adding to our same-game parlay.

The one area the Thunder would like to see some improvement is on the glass, as they have the third-worst rebounding rate in the NBA. Kelly Olynyk is Toronto’s only reliable big at the moment and Covers' prop projections have him at 7.2 rebounds for this matchup. Close this SGP out with Over 6.5 rebounds for Olynyk.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Thunder vs Raptors spread and Over/Under analysis

The Raptors are coming off a blowout loss to the Sacramento Kings, and sportsbooks expect more of the same. The Raps opened as massive 15-point home underdogs but that big number hasn’t scared early bettors away from the Thunder with the line now at Toronto +15.5.

The Raps aren’t playing well anywhere. They can’t buy a bucket and can’t prevent opponents from getting theirs. They have failed to cover as double-digit underdogs in each of their last two games, so what’s stopping us from laying the huge chalk with one of the best teams in the NBA?

Well, the Thunder haven’t exactly been a great bet themselves lately. Despite winning six of its last seven games, OKC has struggled to cover spreads, particularly against big numbers. The Thunder are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five games when laying double digits. That and the massive number are enough for me to stay away from the spread in this one.

When it comes to the total, that hit the board at 230.5 and has been bet up slightly to 231.5 as of Friday afternoon. Simply put, this number is too high.

As noted, the Raptors have a team total of 106.5 and I’m betting they don’t get there. That’s asking a lot from the Thunder for this Game to go Over this number. I’d lean Under.

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Thunder vs Raptors betting trend to know

The Raptors have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games at home for +12.25 units and a 27% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Raptors.

Thunder vs Raptors game info

Thunder vs Raptors latest injuries

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