Suns vs Spurs Picks, Predictions & Odds 3-23-2024 - NBA

The Phoenix Suns are flirting with disaster. With just a dozen games left they are currently in the seventh seed, meaning if the season ended today, they face the possibility of not making the playoffs at all. 

What’s worse is that the Suns' final 10-game stretch is one of the toughest any team has faced this season in terms of opponent quality and home and away splits.

So, it is paramount that Phoenix wins the games it is expected to win before then, which brings us to their matchup against the San Antonio Spurs tonight.

But this is far from an automatic win, even though the listed NBA odds suggest otherwise. After all, the Spurs have already beaten this Suns team twice this season.

The Suns have been a healthier, more cohesive team since then, but Victor Wembanyama has also levelled up in the meantime. It sets up a high-drama matchup on Saturday, March 23.

My NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Spurs believe Grayson Allen will be essential if Phoenix hopes to avoid a third straight loss to San Antonio.

Suns vs Spurs odds

Suns vs Spurs predictions

The Phoenix Suns weren’t supposed to be in this position. When you mortgage the entire team’s future as well as the young talent that propelled you to the 2021 NBA Finals, fighting to escape the play-in this late in the season is nothing short of a catastrophe.

Despite their talent, it’s not exactly surprising either, as all the problems that people forecasted with this team — poor defense, limited availability among their star trio, weak depth — have killed them. Outside of the big three, only a handful of Suns players have distinguished themselves through their play. 

The best among that bunch by far has been Grayson Allen. Allen is having a career year as the loadbearing sharpshooter for Phoenix, leading the entire NBA in 3-point percentage at a whopping 48.2%.

Allen’s shooting is critical as a release valve on a Suns team full of star players who, while capable shooters, would rather do their damage inside the arc than from beyond it. As a result, Allen is the chess piece that Frank Vogel uses judiciously in every play, whether to set him up to score or to use his gravity to create critical space.

Allen isn’t a true movement shooter, but he is getting more comfortable shooting off screens or using a side dribble to avoid a hard closeout before getting into his shooting motion. He’s Top 30 in the Association in distance Traveled per Game, as he shifts and re-shifts all around the perimeter awaiting one of about a dozen kickout passes he receives every Game.

Through 11 games in March, Allen is averaging 4.3 made threes per game on 49.5% shooting. He’s also had four or more in six of his last nine.

The San Antonio Spurs are an improving defensive team, but not on the perimeter. Their improvement has all come around the basket because of rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama. 

The way to beat a team with an imposing rim protector like Victor is to stretch them out and take the one Game changing defender out of the action entirely. Allen will be key to such a strategy, which is why I believe these Grayson Allen odds to make such an appealing bet on Saturday.

My best bet: Grayson Allen Over 3.5 made threes (+120 DraftKings)

Suns vs Spurs same-game parlay

Another role player deserving of a shoutout in Saturday’s matchup is Tre Jones. Jones started the season as a little-used bench player, clocking less than 23 minutes per game in December. 

But his ability as a pick-and-roll partner for Victor has made him essential to the latter's development and has seen his role climb month after month until he eventually secured the starting job.

Like his brother Tyus, Tre has one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the Association. For a young team that makes plenty of mistakes on offense, having a steadying presence like Jones helps the entire offensive ecosystem. 

He’s doing a better job mixing in his own scoring opportunities alongside his passing lately though. Jones is averaging 16.2 points per game over his last five and is hitting nearly 58% of his threes on increased volume.

Lastly, I think Jusuf Nurkic’s tear on the glass is a good bet to end on Saturday. While Wembanyama’s rebounding prop odds have finally caught up to his production, I think there is still good value in shorting his primary opposition in tonight’s Game.

Nurkic has averaged a stunning 14.3 boards through March, but Wemby is a unique challenge. In two games against him earlier this season, Nurkic averaged just 7.5 rebounds, despite the fact that he was being asked to do more on offense with Bradley Beal out of action. Wemby’s ability to space the floor could also see the Suns go small yet again, which would reduce Nurkic’s chance to match his typical production.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Suns vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis

The Suns opened as 9-point favorites for Saturday, but some early action on the visitors has seen that rise to -10 at some Sportsbooks.

The back-to-back losses to the Spurs earlier this season marked one of the low points of the Suns' season and the first moment that true skepticism about the roster construction of this team began to emerge. While they’ve played better since then, they haven’t played so well as to eliminate that skepticism. 

While the Suns are just 4-6 against the spread in their last 10, the Spurs are 6-4. Phoenix is also just 14-18-1 ATS on the road this season, and only 7-10-1 with a rest advantage.

The Spurs are on a back-to-back after a hard-fought loss to the Memphis Grizzlies last night, and they don’t have great perimeter defensive options to deal with Devin Booker or Beal. Neither team is consistent enough for me to like the action on either side.

The total for Suns vs. Spurs came in at 229, fell slightly to 228.5, but has now risen as high as 230.5 at most sportsbooks.

This strikes me as perhaps a touch too high, if only because Victor already has a case as one of the best defensive players in the league. 

Per Kirk Goldsberry, data analytics guru and former Spurs staffer, San Antonio plays at the level of the NBA’s best defense with Wemby on the court (106 defensive rating) and the 25th-ranked defense with him off (118).

While Victor can’t stay on the court all the time, that he can have that level of impact while the Suns play their best offensive units gives them a chance to slow the Suns down a lot, as their bench groups don’t pack nearly the same punch.

Outside of Allen, the Suns also haven’t scored as well on the road, where the Under is 19-14 this season.

Suns vs Spurs betting trend to know

The Under is 19-14 in Suns road games this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Spurs.

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