Pacers vs Warriors Picks, Predictions & Odds 3-22 -2024 - NBA

Ever since the Boston Celtics smacked the taste out of the mouth of the Golden State Warriors, they have struggled to play consistent basketball and all of the sudden they are in a fight for the final play-in spot in the Western Conference.

Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers and their high-octane offense are trying their best to avoid the play-in tournament all together and a win total against the Warriors would give them some breathing room. 

But that won’t be easy, as the NBA odds have the Warriors as 5-point home favorites. Can Indiana beat Golden State at its own game and win in a shootout? I break it all down and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Pacers vs. Warriors.  

Pacers vs Warriors odds

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Pacers vs Warriors predictions

This is a matchup of teams both searching for more consistency as the playoffs approach.

The Golden State Warriors haven’t looked right since they were handed a 52-point beatdown courtesy of the Boston Celtics. They are 4-5 straight up and against the spread dating back to that game. That includes three losses as favorites of 6.5 points or more.

Now, Steph Curry has missed three Games over that stretch, but the big problem is the Warriors defense. The Dubs’ effort at that end of the floor has dropped off lately, ranking 22nd in D-rating over this nine-Game stretch. Which isn’t a recipe for success against the Indiana Pacers. Well, if they were rolling a little better.

That’s because the Pacers have gone just 5-5 SU and ATS in their last 10 games overall. But their inconsistency is almost expected though as they are all gas no brakes.

Indiana has the NBA’s second-rated offense while also ranking second in effective field goal percentage and scoring offense putting up 122.6 points per game. However, the Pacers rank 25th in defensive rating.

The Pacers are led by All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton who is averaging 20.4 points and an NBA-best 11.2 assists per game. But Haliburton has been in a bit of a slump lately, averaging just 15.4 points while shooting an ugly 19.5% from 3-point range.

Luckily, Haliburton has a lot of support these days. Particularly in Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner. The combination of Siakam and Turner should be a tough matchup for the Warriors who run a lot of small-ball lineups these days. 

That has me looking at the point total for Turner. It’s on the board at 15.5 points. Turner averages 17 points per Game and some lower output lately may be getting us a good number here. He’s played below that number in three straight Games but if you look closer you’ll see two of those Games were blowout wins where the Pacers didn’t have to push too hard in the fourth quarter.

Turner's ability to play inside and out looks like a tough matchup for the Warriors. Golden State ranks 16th in opponent points in the paint and 24th in opponent 3-pointers per possession. Additionally, Draymond Green is expected to play but is nursing a back injury.

Our Covers Prop Projections have Turner going for 17.4 points. Back him to go Over this modest point total tonight.

My best bet: Myles Turner Over 15.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

Pacers vs Warriors same-game parlay

The other thing the Pacers will have to do if they want to keep this game close is move the basketball. Luckily, they are built for that, and with the Warriors ranking 17th in opponent assists per game, I’m looking to add an assist prop to this same-game parlay.

Now, there are several good options on the board for this one, and none of them are Tyrese Haliburton. His passing prowess has basically zapped his assists prop of any value. That leaves me deciding between Andrew Nembhard and TJ McConnell. 

Screw it. The numbers are good so let’s take the Over on both. 

Nembhard’s assists prop is at 3.5. He averages 4.2 per game this season. McConnell’s is at 4.5 and averages 5.3 per game. Both are projected to go Over and both are at plus money. Assists for everyone!

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pacers vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

The Warriors opened this NBA matchup as 5-point home favorites and that’s where the line remains as of Friday afternoon.

I don’t have a strong opinion on the spread here either way as both teams haven’t played their best basketball of late. That said, I would lean toward taking the points with the Pacers here. Their flaws have been their flaws all season long. At least they know who they are. Additionally, their lineups should pose a problem for the Warriors. 

The total might be the more interesting number here. It hit the board at a towering 240. That is the highest total of the day. 

The Pacers have been the king of high totals because of their high-octane offense and their lack of defense. But it appears that the acquisition of Pascal Siakam is starting to pay off and I don’t mean on offense. The Pacers rank a respectable 13th in defensive rating since coming out of the All-Star break.

That combined with high totals has made the Pacers an Under machine recently, going 3-11 O/U post-All-Star break.

And while the Warriors have slipped a bit on defense of late, they rank eighth in D-rating since the start of February. I don’t exactly expect this to be a defensive battle, but this total looks a touch too high.

Pacers vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Pacers have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 23 road games for +14.60 units and a 58% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Warriors.

Pacers vs Warriors game info

Pacers vs Warriors latest injuries

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