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Maple Leafs vs Red Wings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NHL

Published

1y ago

Nov 17, 2023 / 1773 Views

Evan Walker

The Global Series continues Friday afternoon with an Original Six matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Detroit Red Wings.

Both of these teams enter today next to one another on the standings table; however, the NHL odds suggest Toronto is the clear favorite to win tonight in what could be a high-scoring affair.

Find out why in my free NHL picks for this November 17 matchup.

Maple Leafs vs Red Wings odds

Maple Leafs vs Red Wings predictions

It’s time to fire up another Original Six rivalry game with a Swedish twist, as this one will be played over in Stockholm, Sweden as part of the NHL’s Global Series.

The Red Wings come into tonight on the heels of a 5-4 loss to the Ottawa Senators. Detroit trailed 4-0 early but mounted a comeback to tie the game before the Sens scored with 2.2 seconds left in overtime. As for the Maple Leafs, they’ve been out of action since Saturday night after back-to-back wins against a pair of Western Canadian foes.

Historically, the Leafs have dominated this matchup, winning eight of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs and scoring an average of 4.6 goals per Game with a stout 39% power play. I think Toronto continues to assert its dominance against Detroit in Sweden with a strong offensive output going Over the team total of 3.5 goals.

After being heavily reliant on Auston Matthews and William Nylander to score, the Maple Leafs are finally getting some depth scoring after seemingly finding a good lineup combination. The Leafs are averaging 4.6 goals in their last five Games, with 10 different skaters hitting the score sheet. Considering Detroit is giving up an average of 3.9 goals in its last 10 Games, that should bode well for the Leafs offense, especially with the Wings playing their third goalie and being in the second half of a back-to-back.

Detroit is expected to start Alex Lyon, who has a career 3.02 GAA with a .902 SV% in 39 NHL Games. However, he’s yet to play in a Game this season and hasn’t seen Game action since the pre-season, so there’s a strong chance he could be rusty out of the gate, and I fully expect the Leafs to take advantage.

Additionally, the Leafs should have an advantage with their power play to help reach the team total. Toronto is operating at 28.3% on the man advantage, ranking sixth in the NHL. Meanwhile, the Wings’ PK has struggled recently, allowing six goals in the last five games.

My best bet: Leafs team total Over 3.5 (-130 at SIA)

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Maple Leafs vs Red Wings same-game parlay

Nylander Anytime goal

Leafs Over 3.5 goals

Maple Leafs -1.5

+290 at SIA

For today’s same Game parlay, I’ve crafted a three-pack of wagers that should blend well together and predicate on the Leafs winning big with Nylander playing hero in his home country.

For leg one of my same-Game parlay, we’ll take my best bet on the Maple Leafs Over 3.5 goals. It’s a number they’ve hit in five straight Games and have cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings between the Leafs and Wings.

Next up, I’m taking Nylander to score an anytime goal. The Leafs star has been on fire with four goals in his last three games and has registered a point in all 15 games this season. I think he extends that streak with a goal in his home country in front of 90+ friends and family who are expected to be in attendance. Additionally, Nylander leads the NHL in shots per game, which should give him an edge vs. a Detroit team ranking ninth in expected goals against while giving up the 11th-most scoring chances.

For the final leg of my parlay, I’ll take the Leafs on the spread of -1.5 goals. Toronto is the better team between the two clubs and is finally getting depth scoring and has a clear advantage on the power play, with Detroit struggling on the penalty kill. Factor in Detroit playing on its second night of a back-to-back in front of a goaltender who hasn’t seen game action since the preseason, that should give Toronto an extra edge. The Leafs have historically owned this matchup, winning eight of the last 10 meetings between the clubs, with seven of those wins by two goals or more.

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Maple Leafs vs Red Wings moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Leafs opened up as -160 favorites in this one, and the odds shifted slightly toward the Buds even more as it currently sits at -165. Meanwhile, the Red Wings enter as +135 underdogs. The Red Wings have won the last two meetings between these two, but Toronto won the eight games prior and should be able to re-establish that dominance tonight. Plus, the Red Wings are planning to start Lyon for the first time this season in front of a Detroit team that played the night before. I’d side with the Leafs here.

The total for the game is set at 6.5 goals. The Over is favored at -130 odds, with the Under getting +105. The Leafs have been married to the Over of late, hitting in five straight games due to their goal-scoring ability, poor defense, and sub-par goaltending. All of that is still very much in play tonight. Meanwhile, the Wings have gone Over the total in four of their last five games and rank fourth in league scoring. We should expect a rather high-scoring game tonight, with both sides combining for a 17-12-1 record on the Over.