Football

Corner Picks, best soccer bets, predictions, odds: Can Barcelona beat Girona stay alive in La Liga title race

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1w ago

May 04, 2024 / 9416 Views

Does a soccer season have dog days? I've always heard this phrase in reference to the MLB season. They talk about the "dog days of summer." I grew up thinking it was some folksy reference to dogs lazing about the house during the summer when it was extremely hot. Turns out I was half right.

The Romans coined the term because the constellation Sirius (a dog) would appear in the night sky at the end of July, which coincided with the hottest Days Of The Year.

I waste your time with this trivia because, in my mind, dog days still mean tired dogs, and when I'm watching soccer lately, I see a lot of tired players. Managers have been complaining about how many matches their teams are forced to play for a while, and this is the time of year when it shows. Even the best teams are making mental mistakes you don't typically see. You watch a match between clubs still fighting to win their league or cup comPetition, and you'd swear they were trying to avoid relegation.

It makes it all a bit more difficult from a betting perspective. There are always certain teams you can rely on to provide a certain level of performance, but these days, it feels like you're constantly rolling the dice.

Girona vs. Barcelona

Date: Saturday, May 4 | Time: 12:30 p.m. ET | Watch: ESPN+

Depending on the outcome of this match, Real Madrid can wrap up the La Liga race this weekend. Regardless, it's unlikely either one of these two will catch Madrid, but they are still locked in a battle for second place. That may not seem important to you, but something tells me Barcelona aren't excited by the prospect of finishing behind the upstart Girona in the standings.

Unfortunately for Barca, it's a very real possibility. Girona beat Barcelona 4-2 earlier this season in Barcelona. Now, the rematch takes place at home, where Girona has lost only once in La Liga all season (3-0 to Real Madrid in September). Barcelona haven't been terrible on the road this season, but their defending has been extremely poor lately. In their last three matches, it's allowed nine goals on 6.7 xG (expected goals). Yes, two matches were against PSG and Real Madrid, but they also allowed Valencia to score twice on 2.1 xG last weekend. The Pick: Girona (+170)

Liverpool vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Date: Sunday, May 5 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: Peacock

If you want to see a team fading down the stretch, look no further than Tottenham, which have lost three straight matches entering the weekend. It's done real damage to their quest to pass Aston Villa for fourth place (the final Champions League spot) in the Premier League, and life isn't getting any easier. This will be Tottenham's third match in eight days, and they still have three more matches to play in the next 14. The problem is that it's not as if Liverpool are playing well.

Liverpool have managed only one win in their last four Premier League matches, including a 2-0 loss to Everton and a 2-2 draw to West Ham last week. Some of this can be explained by Liverpool's last three league matches being away from home, but this just isn't a team firing on all cylinders these days, particularly in attack. That's why I believe the total for this match is a little too high. I've been betting overs in Spurs matches all year, but they look exhausted, and while they've struggled to score lately, Liverpool have still been mostly solid in defense. Well, it's solid enough to take this under, anyway. The Pick: Under 3.5 (+125)

Roma vs. Juventus

Date: Sunday, May 5 | Time: 2:45 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

I started by writing about how the Romans coined the term "dog days of summer," so it's only fitting I include a Roma match this week. This is a must-have for Roma. Serie A will get a fifth Champions League spot, and Roma currently sit in fifth, two points ahead of Atalanta, but Atalanta have a match in hand. Meanwhile, Juventus really have nothing to lose or gain here, so you do wonder a bit about the kind of effort you'll see. Still, I don't see much value in the moneyline.

The better way to exploit Juventus' possible lack of effort is the total. Juventus matches have averaged only 2.15 goals, the second-lowest total in Serie A (Torino matches are at a torrid 1.82). However, Juve's home matches have been lower scoring (1.94) than away (2.35), while Roma are scoring 2.12 goals at home on their own. I can't rule out Roma getting three goals on their own here, so when I see the juice on the over, it looks too good to pass up. The Pick: Over 2.5 (+156)

Weekend Parlay

This week we have a four leg parlay paying +153. That means if we win it 12 times it'll make up for our performance in the Champions League this season.