Celtics vs Suns Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA

The NBA championship still runs through Colorado. 

At least, that’s how most people are feeling after the Boston Celtics failed in their quest to take down the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night. Boston played well enough to beat 90% of teams in the NBA, but troubling crunch time foibles and a down game from Jayson Tatum saw them drop the season series 0-2 against the defending champs.

The Celtics will be looking to bounce back from their first two-Game losing streak of the season on Saturday, March 9, as they head to the Footprint Center to take on the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns are still without Devin Booker and, as such, are substantial NBA odds dogs for this starry matchup. My NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Suns believe oddsmakers believe Boston will come in highly motivated to get a convincing win against Phoenix.

Celtics vs Suns odds

Celtics vs Suns predictions

After winning 11 straight, suddenly the Boston Celtics have dropped two straight games for the first time all season. But there’s no shame in being beaten by the best, and I think in many ways the exact wrong takeaway from their thriller against the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night is that they would have no chance in a future series.

Further, it would be foolish to take these two Celtics losses as setting a new, lower bar for their regular season play. They got caught napping against the shorthanded Cleveland Cavaliers and then were an open corner three away from a final-minute lead against Denver.

The Celtics' formula, and resume, remain best in class. If they have some stumbles, they only surface against the very best in the Association, a tier that the Phoenix Suns cannot quite count themselves a part of.

At least, not this version of the Suns. Phoenix is a tough out when all three of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker are on the court together. But when one of them is absent, they become schemable.

Booker’s status was upgraded to questionable on Friday, so he may play. But oddsmakers aren’t listing props for him, and the Suns cannot afford to rush Booker back and lose him again. This is also the first of a back-to-back set, with Sunday’s game potentially being a potentially easier reintroduction to high-intensity basketball against the Charlotte Hornets. 

If Book is out, the Suns only have three offensive players opposing teams really fear in KD, Beal, and Grayson Allen. Everyone else can be, to varying degrees, helped off, cheated away from, or outright ignored. 

The Celtics are perhaps second only to the Golden State Warriors when it comes to punishing opponents for playing offensive non-entities. They’re also one of the NBA’s best at creating and exploiting mismatches. 

The Suns have to trade offense for defense (or vice versa) all too often when they’re missing one of their primary engines. Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown are all savvy and impactful defenders, they can switch 1-4 (or 1-5 in Jrue’s case) and bully smaller or weaker defenders.

Joe Mazzulla should be able to game plan to maximize Boston’s talent while minimizing the impact of the Suns’ best players.

All of that would be enough to take the Celtics on Saturday, but there’s also the obvious psychological element at play here. Thursday was the first time all season that the Celtics have lost two straight, and they will be desperate not to let this slide get to three. 

They’ll have been stewing on that loss for a day and a half straight and will come out hoping to jump on the Suns before the first quarter is up. Scary things happen when they reach that level of motivation (see: the 140-88 demolition of Golden State).

My best bet: Celtics -5.5 (-110 at bet365)

Celtics vs Suns same-game parlay

It would be easy to overreact to the Celtics’ offensive flameout against Denver, but they shot 28.9% from three. If they get even a normal poor shooting night they comfortably win, and against Phoenix they’ll have much easier avenues to score inside the arc.

While the Celtics can’t be thrilled with their performance against the Nuggets overall, Brown demonstrated yet again why he is so valuable at the highest levels of comPetition. 

While it’s often recalled that Tatum struggled in the 2022 NBA Finals, what seems lost to time is that Brown was outstanding for almost the entire series.

Brown is a matchup nightmare for most teams, strong like an Aaron Gordon, but faster and a much better shooter. Going big to defend him lets him get clean looks outside but go small and he’ll post up and score inside or draw a foul. 

Brown has been known to get off to hot starts, and that’s been even more the case lately. He’s the ninth-leading first quarter scorer in the NBA over the last 10 games, averaging 7.9 points per game. I expect that he’ll lead the charge for the Celtics early in this one.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Celtics vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis

Saturday’s spread came in between -4.5 and -6 favoring Boston, but that’s coalesced to -5.5 just about everywhere.

If Booker plays the Suns are more dangerous, but still substantially worse than Boston. I think the chances that Booker doesn’t play taken with the chances that the Celtics still win convincingly are much greater than a -5.5 spread suggests.

Part of that is in addition to being a brutal fourth quarter team, Phoenix is also miserable against the spread at home.

Phoenix is just 12-21-1 ATS at home this season. Only the Atlanta Hawks and 10-win Washington Wizards are worse.

The total for Celtics at Suns opened as high as 228, but at time of writing, most sportsbooks after offering it at 227.5.

Even accounting for a relatively down performance against Denver, the Celtics' offensive rating over the past two weeks is still 129.1, best in the Association in that time and about seven points better than their season long, record setting mark. 

The issue for Phoenix is they have some decent defenders, but they have to put out a lot of perimeter players who can be abused by the stronger Celtics wings like Holiday and Brown. They also play plodding centers who are susceptible to the play of Kristaps Porzingis. Josh Okogie would be their best option to slow down Tatum or Brown, but he’s still out of action with an abdomen injury.

Only a few teams have the personnel to junk things up for the Celtics, and even a fully-healthy Phoenix isn’t among them. The Suns have had a nice defensive run of late, but they don’t have the right mix of personnel to slow Boston’s outside in attack.

The Celtics could spread the floor and try to outscore the Celtics, going small with Durant at the five for long stretches. That group is difficult to guard for anyone, including Boston, particularly if either Tatum or Brown, who are probable and questionable, respectively, are limited.

Celtics vs Suns betting trend to know

The Suns are 12-21-1 ATS at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Suns.

Celtics vs Suns game info

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