In a 5-round middleweight bout in the main event, Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 245 — also known as UFC Vegas 99 and UFC on ESPN+ 103 — at the UFC Apex. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 245: Hernandez vs. Pereira odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Records: Hernandez (12-2-0) | Pereira (31-11-0)
Hernandez streaks into this main event with 5 consecutive victories dating back to UFC 258. That includes a 2nd-round submission of Roman Kopylov at UFC 298 back on Feb. 17. He has finished inside the distance in 4 of his 5 victories during the win streak, and he has had just 1 decision in his 8 fights at the UFC level since Feb. 2, 2019.
For Pereira, he enters on an 8-bout win streak since being DQ’d against Diego Sanchez Feb. 15, 2020 in New Mexico. He has finished inside the distance in each of his past 3 outings, including a pair of 1st-round submission wins over Ihor Potieria and Michal Oleksiejczuk. Each of his past 3 wins have been finished in Round 1.
Hernandez holds a 2-inch reach advantage, while Pereira has a slight 5.16-to-4.30 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Hernandez is much more accurate with those strikes at 64.32%, while the Brazilian fighter has a 56.14% mark.
Hernandez is a lot more efficient on takedowns, too, posting a 6.62 takedown average, to 1.53 mark for Pereira. Hernandez has posted an impressive 2.99 submission average, to just 0.84 for Pereira.
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UFC Fight Night 245: Hernandez vs. Pereira odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Hernandez -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Pereira +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Over/under: 2.5 Rounds (Over +120 | Under -160)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +400 | No -700)
UFC Fight Night 245: Hernandez vs. Pereira picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
HERNANDEZ (-135) is a strong play on the 2-way line, as he does much more right than Pereira (+110).
It’s Hernandez’s work in the ground-and-pound that sets him apart, and as long as he avoids the big shot for a knockout, he’ll get the job done.
Hernandez has won 3 of his past 5 fights by way of submission, and 5 of his past 8 fights have finished via the method, with 4 victories.
In fact, if you wanted to roll the dice on the 7-way line, playing HERNANDEZ BY SUBMISSION (+150), that’s a solid value at plus-money.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-160) is a nice play at this price.
This fight isn likely to end before the middle of Round 3. Hernandez has gone past 2:30 of Round 3 just once in the past 9 pro bouts, while Pereira hasn’t even seen Round 2 in the past 3 outings.
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