San Diego State vs UConn National Championship Game Expert Picks

Following a wild and unpredictable regular season, this year’s NCAA Tournament has truly has lived up to the March Madness billing. We have seen a plethora of massive upsets, a trio of unlikely teams reach the Final Four and tons of thrilling matchups that came right down to the wire.

Here at Pickswise, we have asked our best college hoops handicappers to give their best bets for Monday’s National Championship between San Diego State and UConn. That’s 4 best bets for college basketball’s biggest stage all in 1 place! Let’s get into who our experts are backing with their best bets.

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Caleb Wilfinger’s National Championship best bet: UConn Huskies -7.5 (-110)

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Matt Marquart’s National Championship best bet: Under 132.5 (-110)

The under is the best bet in this Game involving 2 elite defenses. Both UConn and San Diego State rank in the top 8 of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, and on paper they match up fairly well with each other. For San Diego State, the goal is always to force their opponents into the half court. Per Hoop-Math, San Diego State ranks fourth nationally in preventing shot attempts in transition. If the Aztecs can successfully slow the Game down, we could see a Game played to a lower possession total than the 65 projected by KenPom. San Diego State also ranks in the 87th percentile in post-up defense — key against UConn’s Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan. Lastly, Aguek Arop is among the best perimeter defenders in the country, so he will likely have the assignment of guarding Jordan Hawkins.

The Aztecs are unlikely to completely shut down the potent UConn offense, but they should be able make things difficult. Meanwhile, UConn’s defense is fantastic at protecting the paint. According to Hoop-Math, the Huskies rank 25th in field-goal percentage defense at the rim — which forces their opponents to make jump shots against them. San Diego State made a lot of 3s and long 2s in the win over FAU, but we have also seen the Aztecs struggle against Creighton — a similar defense to UConn’s.

Kyle Lupas’ National Championship best bet: San Diego State +7.5 (-110)

At 7.5-point favorites, the UConn Huskies are the most heavily favored team in a National Championship game since Duke was favored to beat Brad Stevens and his Butler Bulldogs by 7 points back in 2010. Duke went on to win that year, but Butler managed to cover the spread with a 2-point loss. That game was all about defense, as Butler and Duke both ranked inside the top 7 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Tonight’s matchup draws many comparisons to that game in 2010. Butler and San Diego State were both #5 seeds that nobody expected to be playing for it all, up against college basketball royalty — and while UConn isn’t a #1 seed like Duke was, it’s a title they held earlier in the season after a 14-0 start.

I’m going to make an argument for the Aztecs to cover the spread tonight and give the Huskies their biggest challenge in the tournament to date. For one, both these teams play at some of the slowest paces in the country and I don’t think there’s enough possessions for UConn to really pull away. Secondly, the Huskies saw some weaker defenses throughout the tournament and when they did come face-to-face with a top 10 defense in Saint Mary’s, they put up their lowest point total of the tournament with 70. San Diego State guards the 3-point line almost better than any team in the country, holding opponents to 28.3% shooting from outside and held Alabama and Creighton to a combined 5-for-44 (11.4%). 

Lastly, are the turnover issues with UConn, which showed up at times against Miami. The Huskies committed 15 turnovers against an average defensive team and let Miami hang around much longer than they should have. San Diego State often struggles to find offense, but if UConn continues to turn the ball over on 18.4% of their possessions (233rd in the country) they may just allow the Aztecs to hang around as well.

Lock Mamba’s National Championship best bet: Under 132.5 (-110)

The San Diego State Aztecs and the UConn Huskies will meet tonight in the NCAA basketball national championships game. This game will be played in Houston at NRG Stadium and will crown the 2022-2023 national champion in just a few hours. This should be a great title game between two teams that were not expected to be here based on their seed. Taking UConn to cover the 7.5-point spread seems to be a popular pick by the college basketball community, but my best play of the game to go under the total.

The total for this game is set for 132.5 points and that is a bit too high for my liking. I expect this game to be a defensive battle between a pair of teams that can guard the basketball better than anyone else in the country. The total has gone under in 59.5 percent of San Diego State’s games this season and that trend should continue here. The defense will be on full display in Houston tonight as both teams will make it very hard on each other to score. According to KenPom, San Diego’s State defense is ranked 3rd in three-point percentage and 4th in adjusted efficiency. UConn’s defense is 8th in adjusted efficiency and 8th in effective field goal percentage, so don’t expect a ton of points in this one.  

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