Rocket Mortgage Classic predictions & best bets from Diane Knox Balas

The Travelers Championship was the final designated event before the FedExCup Playoffs on the PGA Tour, and Keegan Bradley got his second victory of the year. He didn’t have his A-game as he came down the stretch, but had enough of a cushion at the top of the leaderboard to hold off the pack. I had Brian Harman as a 100/1 outright pick, and he finished T2 after a final round of 6-under. I always take my top picks for top-10s, so I made a little money off Harman.

This week, it’s the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit. I once enquired about a mortgage with them, and still to this day they hound me with calls and packets of information in the mail. However, I’ll put that minor (irritating) detail to one side and enjoy this week of Golf. 

The tournament is being held a little earlier on the schedule this year, and we’ve got a pretty good field teeing it up, considering we’re coming off a Major and a designated event. Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa and Tony Finau are the headline names. 

This week is wide open, and we’ve seen a variety of winning styes at this iconic course. I picked Finau to win at 14/1 last year, and he did, so I’m feeling the pressure to repeat and give you another champion. Here’s hoping! He also won at -26, so we know it’s going to be another low scoring week. Nate Lashley won in 2019 and was the last man to get his spot in the field. So late, in fact, that odds weren’t even available for him before he teed off!

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Detroit Golf Club: What you need to know

This gem of a course was founded in 1899, but this is only the fifth year of the tournament. It measures in at 7,370 yards but is a par 72, so it plays on the shorter side.

When you look back at past champions and guys who have fared well here, trends show this course suits a variety of styles. Finau was victorious last year, and Bryson DeChambeau won here in 2020, with Matt Wolff hot on his heels – three big hitters. However, in 2019 Nate Lashley took home the trophy and was 101st in driving distance.

There are a few ways to get the job done around Detroit Golf Club, but the common thread seems to be strong putting, great wedge play and overall a good tee-to-green performance. The fairways are tree-lined but pretty wide, and there’s fewer water hazards around the 18 holes, presenting a lot of options off the tee. The 4th hole is a 635 yard par-5, and the 17th is also a par-5 and plays as one of the easiest on the course, creating some late-in-the-day scoring opportunities. 

Expect scoring to be low again as, overall, it’s not that difficult a course in any area aside from on the greens. I’m really looking at great tee-to-green game, birdie-makers and excellent putters this week, as well as good past performance and momentum entering the tournament.

Knox’s Knockout Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

Rickie Fowler (+1400 at DraftKings)

It’s got to be Rickie’s week, right? Another positive week at the Travelers gave him a T13 finish, and his ninth top-17 finish in his last ten starts. That’s incredible. 2023 Rickie compared to 2022 Rickie is like looking at a whole different person! In addition, he’s the poster boy of Rocket Mortgage and has a T12 at this tournament 3 years ago. He’s in form, he’s confident, he’s got the backing of the fans AND the title sponsor this week. Plus, at 14/1 we all want to see it happen!

Tom Kim (+2200 at DraftKings)

Tom Kim is the most likable guy on Tour. Well, maybe aside from Scottie Scheffler, and the two celebrated their birthdays together last week. Kim just turned 21 and finished T38 last week after a final round 65. He’s been a little up and down, however a T8 at the U.S. Open shows his game is in a good state. His iron play and approach shot is the real strength of his game, and he sits 8th in strokes gained: approach for the season. Solid tee-to-green play will be key this week, and Tom is 15th in total driving and 6th in driving accuracy, which will be a benefit when avoiding the trees along the fairways. 

Ludvig Aberg (+6600 at PointsBet)

Aberg is going to be a star on the PGA Tour and I feel quite confident that he’ll be in the conversation this week. The Swede just turned pro earlier this month, after graduating with top honors from the PGA Tour University, and immediately finished within the top-25 at the RBC Canadian Open. He also finished inside the top-25 last week at the Travelers by putting well and gaining over a stroke on the field off-the-tee. I like these odds for the new kid on the block.

Troy Merritt (+30000 at PointsBet)

The phrase “horses for courses” rings true for this guy in this tournament. In the last three years, Troy Merritt has finished T8, T2 and T14, therefore likes coming here and must feel the course suits his Game, especially on the greens where he’s gained almost three strokes on the field in the last three years. Merritt also has family in Detroit, and his cousin is the head women’s basketball coach at the University of Detroit Mercy. However, he’s having a terrible season and, aside from the Zurich Classic team event, hasn’t made a cut since January. I’m taking a huge risk with this pick, and will not be staking a big claim here, but will also take Troy for a top-10 at +1800.

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Rocket Mortgage Classic Prop Bets

Top-10 Finish – Cam Davis (+425 at Bet365)

Davis is a past champion here and had a good week last week in Hartford, carding a final round 63 to shoot up the leaderboard. He’s such a hot & cold player, with a T6 at The Players and a T4 at the PGA Championship, but those winning memories will come flooding back and hopefully aid his Game this week. 

Top Englishman – Callum Tarren (+600 at Bet365)

Tarren has four fellow countrymen above him on the odds boards, but I like him to beat them all this week. He played really well last week in Hartford, with a 63 on Saturday, and his fantastic off-the-tee game will do well for him at Detroit Golf Club. He needs a good week on the greens, like we saw from him at the PGA Championship last month.

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