Real Madrid welcomes Borussia Dortmund to the Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid for the 3rd of 8 matchdays in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET (Paramount+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s soccer odds around the Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund odds, and make our best soccer bets, picks and predictions.
Real Madrid sits 2nd in La Liga, 3 points behind Barcelona. In La Liga action, the Los Blancos are a perfect 5-0-0 at home. They have a 14-plus goal differential through all 10 La Liga matches. F Kylian Mbappe leads Los Blancos with 6 goals in 9 starts. In UEFA action, Real has a 3-1 home win over Stuttgart and a 1-0 road loss to Lille, having at least 0.7 more expected goals in both matches. Real beat Dortmund 2-0 June 1, 2024, in the Champions League final after a flawless 6 games in group play.
Dortmund exceeded expectations last season, taking down Paris Saint-Germain (who had Mbappe on their roster) in the semifinals, Atletico Madrid in the quarterfinals and PSV Eindhoven in the Round of 16. Dortmund holds a 4-1-2 record in the Bundesliga, the top league in Germany. It sits 6th in the league with a 2-plus goal differential through 7 matches. F Serhou Guirassy, leads Dortmund with 4 goals. In UEFA competition, it beat Club Brugge 3-0 on the road and routed Celtic 7-1 at home.
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Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of soccer odds. Lines last updated at 1:23 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Real Madrid -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Borussia Dortmund +550 (bet $100 to win $550) | Draw +425
- Over/Under: 3.5 (O: -105 | U: -135)
Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund picks and predictions
Prediction
Real Madrid 2, Borussia Dortmund 1
Moneyline (ML)
PASS.
There’s no real value on the moneyline. Real Madrid (-250) has dominated at home both in UEFA and in La Liga competitions. That should be expected to continue Tuesday. Similarly, Dortmund (+550) has been awful as of late on the road.
While Dortmund has won 3 of its last 4 matches throughout all competitions, it has lost 2 in a row on the road. Dortmund lost 2-1 at Union Berlin and 5-1 at Stuttgart, a team Real Madrid beat 3-1 earlier in the season.
Put it all together and Real should come out on top. However, the -250 price is far too expensive to take here.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 3.5 (-135).
Real Madrid’s defense is the real deal. While its offense has numerous superstar names that take up the bulk of the headlines, its defense is just as talented. Real has played 7 home matches throughout all competitions and has had 4 clean sheets, allowing just 3 goals in those games. The Los Blancos have gone Under this total in 4 of 7 matches. They allowed just 7 goals in 6 group stage matches last season.
For Dortmund, it went Under this total in its lone road UEFA match this season and has gone Under this total in 3 of 5 road matches overall. In 9 matches where expected goals were tallied, Dortmund allowed 1.5 or fewer in 6 of those.
TAKE UNDER 3.5 (-135).
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