The Pittsburgh Pirates (19-25) and Chicago Cubs (25-19) open a 4-Game series at Wrigley Field Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cubs lead 2-1
The Pirates are coming off a 10-2 loss as +135 underdogs at the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday. LHP Martín Pérez allowed 9 ER (5 HR) in 5 innings, which helped the Over (8) easily cash.
Chicago won 7-1 as a +164 underdog at the Atlanta Braves Wednesday as the Under (9) cashed. RHP Javier Assad pitched 6 scoreless innings for the Cubs, who avoided being swept in 3 games.
Pirates at Cubs projected starters
RHP Jared Jones vs. LHP Justin Steele
Jones (2-4, 2.68 ERA) makes his 9th start. The rookie has a 0.87 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 47 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 2 BB, 4 K in 7-2 home defeat vs. Cubs Friday
- Road stats: 1-2, 3.68 ERA (22 IP, 9 ER), 0.86 WHIP in 4 starts
Steele (0-0, 4.73 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 13 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 10-9 loss at Pirates Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (4 2/3 IP), 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 1 start, a 6-3 setback vs. San Diego Padres May 6
- Career vs. Pirates: 1-2, 6.46 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.47 WHIP in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance, including 0-1 with an 8.00 ERA (9 IP, 8 ER) in 2 starts last season
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Pirates at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cubs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-200) | Cubs -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Pirates at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 3, Cubs 2
Moneyline
Pittsburgh (+105) has the advantage at starting pitcher with Jones, who has allowed 2 or fewer ER in 5 of his last 7 starts. Steele has surprisingly struggled when facing the Pirates in his career and gave up 3 HRs in just 4 IP against them on Saturday.
However, the Cubs offense may come back to life in later innings against the Pirates bullpen, making the 1st 5 innings a slightly safer play.
BET PIRATES FIRST 5 INNINGS (+100).
Run line/Against the spread
Pittsburgh +1.5 (-200) should cover, but it’s a losing proposition long term to lay -200 on a team in MLB.
PASS. Bet Pirates 1st 5 innings and/or the total instead.
Over/Under
The Under has hit in 3 straight Cubs games as they have scored a total of just 7 runs over that span — all in their last game after back-to-back shutouts. Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t been much better, either, putting up a total of just 5 runs over its last 2 games.
While the market is expecting Steele to bounce back (his O/U for ER is set at 1.5), he has struggled against Pittsburgh, and that’s cause for concern.
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).
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