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Panthers vs Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NHL

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We’ve got 10 games on the NHL slate tonight, including an Atlantic Division showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers.

The Leafs have just two regulation wins in their last 10 games and have some concerning trends that are starting to form that the Panthers could take advantage of in this matchup.

The NHL odds suggest Toronto should win, but some of these trends may lead to an alternate result. Find out why in my free NHL picks for this November 28 matchup.

Panthers vs Maple Leafs odds

Panthers vs Maple Leafs predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs return home to host the Florida Panthers at Scotiabank Arena as the Buds get set to play their first game in that building since November 11. 

The Leafs are coming off back-to-back losses where they spent a lot of time in their own end and gave up a lot of shots to the other side. In fact, they’ve been one of the worst shot-suppressing teams in the league over their last five, giving up an average of 33.1 shots per Game (ranking 31st).

Enter the Panthers, who are tied for the second-most shots per game over their last five contests with an average of 33.4 shots on goal. A big part of that is because Florida spends 44.6% of their games in the offensive zone, which ranks second in the NHL behind only the Hurricanes. 

The player leading the charge here for the Panthers is Matthew Tkachuk. According to NHL Edge, Tkachuk spends the fifth-most time on the offensive side of the ice, with 49.5% of his total ice time being played on the opposing end.

A lot of this has to do with his 70% O-zone starts as well, which has allowed him to be Florida’s go-to trigger man and a Top-5 volume shooter in the league, averaging 4.19 shots per game. 

The current total for Tkachuk’s shot prop market is 3.5, and it’s a number he’s hit in 11 of his 21 games this season. Given the fact that the Maple Leafs are giving up shots at an alarming rate and are spending over 40% of the team’s game on their end of the ice, Tkachuk should be able to hit his yearly average of 4+ shots.

My best bet: Matthew Tkachuk Over 3.5 shots on goal (+100 at SIA)

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Panthers vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs are favored to win this game with -145 odds, while the Panthers are paying +120 as road dogs. Florida has certainly been the better team this season and has won seven of the 10 meetings between these two clubs in 2023 (playoffs included).

Plus-money odds seem like a good value play here for Florida, which takes on a Leafs team struggling to find offense from their top players and hasn’t made many improvements on defense or in net. Plus, the underdog has been victorious in eight of the last nine meetings.  

The total for this game opened up at 6 but has since climbed to 6.5, with the Over giving -120 odds and the Under paying even money (+100). With the total climbing to 6.5, it’s tempting to take the value of a low-scoring affair, especially since it's hit in eight straight meetings.

However, games at Scotiabank Arena have been going Over the total regularly this season, with seven of the nine games being goal fests. The underlying numbers would suggest it’s probable to happen again, as would the sharp money that moved the line initially. 

Panthers vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The Panthers are 4-1 in their last five games on the road. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Maple Leafs.

Panthers vs Maple Leafs game info

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date: Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Florida, TSN4
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