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NBA Nuggets vs Heat Best Bets for Friday, June 9 | Pickswise

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We’re onto Game 4 in the NBA Finals as the Denver Nuggets lead the series 2-1. After a big win for Denver in Game 1, a comeback win for the Heat in Game 2 and a statement win for the Nuggets in Game 3, Nikola Jokic and company are -800 favorites to win the Finals. After going 2-0 in Game 3, I have 2 more best bets to make for Friday night’s game.

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Denver Nuggets Team Total Over 106.5 (-120)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

Game 4 of the NBA Finals takes place in Miami after Denver took back home-court advantage with a convincing Game 3 win. While oddsmakers added a point to the opening side making Denver a 3.5 favorite, they’ve dropped the game total several points again to 210.5. It may not feel like it, but Denver has utterly dominated this series with the exception of one quarter of play. In the 4th quarter of Game 2, the Heat, who trailed by 8, shot 68.8% from the field and 55.6% from beyond the arc to steal the game and the win. Other than that, Denver has outshot or outscored Miami in the other 11 quarters. To this point, Miami has shown little to prove that they can stop the Nuggets offense or Nikola Jokic. Denver is shooting better than 51% from the field in the series, while Jokic is shooting 59% from the field, 44% from 3-point range and averaging 33/12/9 in the 3 games.
Games 1 and 3 were blowouts by Denver, and that has made some of the numbers look short. Miami is actually averaging 10 more field goal attempts in the series because they were playing catchup and Denver was killing the clock. With the game total being as low as it is, I think it goes over because Denver can’t be stopped by Miami. However, Miami has to play their best game to give themselves any real shot at winning it all, and that means they will need their best game from Jimmy Butler. The more Miami scores, the more Denver will score. That’s why I like Denver’s team total over 106.5. Even though the Nuggets haven’t been great from 3 in this series, they are still shooting almost 60% on their 2-point shots, and they out rebounding Miami by an average of 13 rebounds per game. Denver can’t be stopped inside, and if they improve just a tick from deep, they will clear this total easily. The 2 scenarios where Denver doesn’t clear this number is another blowout win where the pace just dies in the 4th quarter or a wildly unexpected, unpredictable poor shooting performance from the Nuggets. The latter is the less likely of the 2. I think the Nuggets get close to 110 in this game and go over their team total.

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Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-105) over Miami Heat

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

Game 4 of the NBA Finals feels like a must-win for the Miami Heat in order to avoid a 3-1 hole to the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have dominated this series and they have outscored or outshot the Heat in 11 of the 12 quarters played so far. Without Miami’s incredible and unlikely shooting in 4th quarter of Game 2, where they shot better than 68% from the field and 55% from beyond the arc, they would be down 0-3 in this series. The Heat defense has left a lot to be desired as well. They have not been able to stop the Nuggets offense or Nikola Jokic in this series at all. Denver hasn’t needed to be great from deep because the are outrebounding Miami by a wide margin and shooting 59.6% on their 2-point shots.

Miami’s only chance for a win here is to get “playoff Jimmy” to have one of his signature games. Without that, Miami doesn’t stand a chance. The Heat have kept themselves alive with albeit sporadic, but very hot 3-point shooting in games – see the 4th quarter of Game 2. The bottom line is that Denver is much better than Miami, and Denver is much better than Boston too. It’s easy to forget that the Nuggets had the best regular season record in the NBA this season, and yet, oddsmakers are still undervaluing them. I think the Nuggets take full control of this series and win another game on the Heat’s home court. I’ll lay the 3.5 with Denver.

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