The Milwaukee Brewers (36-23) and Philadelphia Phillies (41-19) begin a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2024; Brewers won 4 of 6 in 2023
Milwaukee completed a 3-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox with a 6-3 victory as a big -320 home favorite Sunday. RF Jackson Chourio’s 3-run homer in the 2nd inning and DH Gary Sanchez’s 2-run single in the 8th gave the Brewers all the offense they’d need to issue Chicago an 11th straight loss (season-high). Meanwhile, Milwaukee has won 5 in a row.
Philadelphia failed to complete a home sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday night after falling in 5-4 in 10 innings as a -137 favorite. Phillies SS Bryson Stott tied it in the bottom of the 5th inning on a 2-run single, but Cardinals 2B Nolan Gorman’s RBI single in the top of the 10th turned out to plate the winning run. The Phils are 2-1 during a current 6-game homestand.
Brewers at Phillies projected starters
RHP Bryse Wilson vs. RHP Zack Wheeler
Wilson (3-1, 3.19 ERA) is slated to start in somewhat of an “opener” roll. He’s pitched 14 Games this season with 7 starts. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, 7.3 K/9 in 48 innings.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER (4 R), 6 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 10-6 home win vs. Chicago Cubs Wednesday
- Career vs. Phillies: 1-1, 7.15 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 2.03 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 4 games (3 starts)
Wheeler (6-3, 2.32 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 0.95 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 73 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 1-0, 10-inning loss at San Francisco Giants Tuesday
- Career vs Brewers: 3-2, 2.68 ERA (57 IP, 17 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 in 9 starts.
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Brewers at Phillies odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:26 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers +168 (bet $100 to win $168) | Phillies -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-118) | Phillies -1.5 (-102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Brewers at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Brewers 2
Moneyline.
PASS.
With an opener taking the hill for the Brewers, I like the Phillies (-200) to get this victory Monday night. The Phillies were heartbroken a night earlier at home and will look to bounce back in a big way against a good Brewers team. I’m not going to pay that juice though, I’ll take the Phillies on the run line. AVOID.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-102).
Philadelphia is just a ½ Game behind the Yankees for the best record in baseball. The Phillies have won 9 of their last 11 at home with a 24-9 overall record at Citizens Bank Park.
Wheeler does not have a loss since April 14 — going 6-0 with 2 no-decisions in his last 8 starts with the Phillies eventually losing those 2 no-decisions. He has allowed a total of 4 earned runs in his last 4 home starts across 28 2/3 innings for a 1.26 ERA. As mentioned, Wheeler also has 2.68 ERA against the Brewers in his career.
Milwaukee is coming off of a stellar 7-game homestand going 6-1 against the 2 Chicago clubs, but the Brewers are 4-5 in their last 9 road games. This will be a tough test in a hostile environment for the Brew Crew.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8 (-105).
In their last 6 head-to-head meetings, the Under is 4-2. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 10 Games. Before the Brewers 6-Games at home against both Chicago squads, they had been Under in 4 straight on the road.
Wheeler will keep this score in check Monday. BACK UNDER 8 (-105).
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