Who’s up for a little bet and breakfast on Sunday morning?
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Minnesota Wild get set to drop the puck at 8:00 a.m. Eastern time to close out the NHL’s Global Series in Stockholm, Sweden.
Find out where my best lies in my free NHL picks for Leafs vs. Wild on November 19.
Maple Leafs vs Wild odds
Maple Leafs vs Wild predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Minnesota Wild played earlier in the season when the Leafs beat the Wild 7-4 at Scotiabank Arena, and they’ll look to complete the sweep in Sweden as the finale to the NHL’s Global Series.
The Wild suffered their fourth straight loss on Saturday in a shootout against Ottawa. Meanwhile, the Leafs pulled off a come-from-behind 3-2 win over Detroit on Friday afternoon. It was the William Nylander show in his home country as he factored in on all three goals to ignite the comeback in front of his 90+ friends and family in the building.
With that three-point effort, Nylander extended his points streak to 16 games in a row to begin the season and has also scored in four straight outings. I could see him extending both of those streaks in the Global Series finale.
Willy has scored in three straight meetings against Minnesota and has six goals in his last eight games against them, including a two-goal outing earlier this season when the two teams met in October. Can he net one again to keep the streaks alive?
Well, let’s dive into Minnesota’s goaltending metrics to see how much offense they’re giving up to the opposition. Minnesota ranks 31st in the league, giving up an average of four goals per game, with both goalies sporting a sub .900 SV% and GAA’s in the mid-3.00s.
The projected starter for the Wild is Marc-Andre Fleury, with Filip Gustavsson having played the day prior in the loss to Ottawa. The 39-year-old netminder is having the worst statistical season of his career with a .879 SV% and a 3.41 GAA.
According to MoneyPuck, Fleury has allowed 5.9 goals above expected, which ranks as the third worst in the NHL. He’s also coming off his worst outing of the season where he gave up eight goals to Dallas.
The penalty kill for Minnesota has been abysmal as well, as the Wild own a league-worst 66.1% kill rate. That’ll be another opportunity for Nylander to find the back of the net as he’s already scored a team-leading five goals on the power play, which is just one shy of the league lead.
My best bet: William Nylander anytime goal (+125 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Wild same-game parlay
William Nylander anytime goal
Leafs team total Over 3.5
For today’s little bet and breakfast SGP, I’ve got a trio of plays for you that look promising if Nylander and the Leafs continue to dominate offensively.
For leg one of my same-game parlay, we’ll take my best bet for Nylander to score an anytime goal. Considering the spotty goaltending in Minnesota and the fact that Nylander is getting one last chance to shine in front of friends and family, I like for him to put on a show once again.
I’m also taking the Leafs to hit the Over on their team total of 3.5 goals, as Minnesota is giving up an average of four goals per game and has an atrocious penalty kill. Toronto feasted on this team back in October, scoring seven goals with two of them coming on the man advantage. The Leafs are also starting to get scoring from up and down their lineup and have averaged four goals per game in the month of November.
For the final leg of my parlay, I’ll take the Leafs to win the game on the moneyline. Toronto is the better team overall, having won four straight against the Wild and going 6-1 in the last eight meetings.
Toronto has started to find some chemistry here of late and looked dominant in the third period against Detroit. I ultimately expect them to take advantage of a tired Wild team that is on their second leg of a back-to-back.
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Maple Leafs vs Wild moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs are -135 favorites in this matchup against Minnesota, who enter as +110 underdogs. The favorite is 19-5 in the last 24 meetings between these clubs. Minnesota is playing their second game of a back-to-back, which gives Toronto a bit of an edge.
Additionally, the Leafs have owned this matchup of late, going 6-1 straight up. You could even possibly consider a regulation moneyline win for the Leafs at +110.
The total for this matchup is set at 6.5 goals with the Over slightly favored at -115, while the Under is being dished out at -105. Toronto has cashed in on the Over in five of its last six games, while the Wild are 10-5-1 to the O/U this season.
The total isn’t a wager I have a firm feel for in this game, but I’d lean on the Over based on the earlier season outcome and subpar goaltending on both sides.
Maple Leafs vs Wild betting trend to know
The Wild are 2-8 in their last 10 games when playing on zero days of rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Wild.
Maple Leafs vs Wild game info
|Location:||Avicii Arena, Stockholm, Sweden|
|Date:||Sunday, November 19, 2023|
|Puck drop:||8:00 a.m. ET|
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