The Los Angeles Dodgers (35-22) and New York Mets (22-32) meet Wednesday as they finalize a 3-game series. First pitch at Citi Field is slated for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Dodgers lead 3-2
Monday’s scheduled opener was rained out, and the 2 clubs played a Tuesday twin bill which was swept by the Dodgers, 3-0 and 5-2. Los Angeles heads into Wednesday’s finale looking to complete a series sweep and win the season series.
With Tuesday’s twin losses, the Mets are now 10 games under .500. That’s the season low-water mark for a squad which is now 1-7 in its last 8 games and just 4-14 since May 10.
Dodgers at Mets projected starters
LHP James Paxton vs. LHP David Peterson
Paxton (5-0, 3.49 ERA) is lined up for his 10th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 in 49 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 9-6 loss at Cincinnati Friday
- Career vs. Mets: 2-1, 3.92 ERA (20.2 IP, 9 ER), 24 H, 5 BB, 19 K in 4 starts
- Allowed 2 HR in his last start and has yielded 4 round-trippers in his last 10 2/3 IP
- Owns a 5.17 ERA, 1.53 WHIP across his last 3 road starts; has registered a 5.08 road ERA over the last 2 seasons
Peterson is coming off the 6-day IL (hip) to make this start. He owns a 4.51 ERA over 333 career IP.
- Logged a 1.14 ERA, 0.93 WHIP across 6 rehabilitation games at Triple-A
- Has never faced the Dodgers
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Dodgers at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:04 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Dodgers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Dodgers at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Dodgers 4
Moneyline
The Dodgers have lost 4 straight get-away games. The Mets have been underplaying their runs/runs allowed profile. Their 4.15 runs-per-game is tamped down by a .273 batting average on balls in play (.268 BABIP when leading off an inning).
New York is swung around to its lesser platoon splits when facing left-handers (.663 OPS) and Peterson’s return may not put the Mets’ best foot forward. Paxton’s surface numbers are suspect, and NEW YORK (+112) is worth some partial-unit action. That price is available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: The best relative value here is on the ML.
Over/Under
The Over has gone 17-7-1 in New York home games.
The pitching here is overall fade-worthy, and the forecast calls for a batter’s breeze blowing out. An overnight line move has taken some of the air out of this lean: consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 8.5 (-120).
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