The Kansas City Royals (34-22) and Minnesota Twins (30-24) play the 3rd game of a 4-game set Wednesday. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 4-1
The Royals lost 4-2 as -130 favorites in the 2nd game of the series Tuesday as the Under (7.5) hit. Kansas City has lost 3 straight games for the 1st time since a 3-game skid April 27-29.
RHP Simeon Woods Richardson got his 1st win in 8 starts for the Twins, who have won 6 of their last 7 games. Twins 3B José Miranda got the offense started early with a 2-run single in the 1st inning.
Royals at Twins projected starters
RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Bailey Ober
Lugo (8-1, 1.74 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 72 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 8-1 victory at Tampa Bay Rays Friday
- 2024 road stats: 5-0, 0.75 ERA (36 IP, 3 ER), 0.69 WHIP in 5 starts
- 2024 vs. Twins: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (6 IP), 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 5-1 home loss March 30
- Career vs. Twins: 0-0, 1.80 ERA (20 IP, 4 ER), 1.00 WHIP in 3 starts and 2 relief appearances
Ober (5-2, 4.33 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 52 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 3-2 home victory over Texas Rangers Friday
- 2024 home stats: 2-0, 2.57 ERA (21 IP, 6 ER), 0.91 WHIP in 4 starts
- 2024 vs. Royals: 0-1, 54.00 ERA (1 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 9 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 1 start, an 11-0 road loss March 31
- Career vs. Royals: 0-3, 7.24 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.70 WHIP in 8 starts
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Royals at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Twins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-200) | Twins -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Royals at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 3, Twins 2
Moneyline
The market seems to have lost all confidence in the ROYALS (+110) after losing in a good spot Tuesday.
Lugo has won his last 5 decisions, and Ober has struggled against Kansas City in his career. This line seems like an overreaction to the Royals’ 3-Game skid and Minnesota winning 6 of its last 7.
BET ROYALS (+110).
Run line/Against the spread
Kansas City +1.5 (-200) should hit, but laying -200 in MLB is a losing proposition long term.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Under 4-1-1 in Minnesota’s last 6 games, and Ober has allowed 2 ER or fewer in all 4 home starts this season.
Lugo has given up 2 ER or fewer in 6 straight starts overall and allowed a total of just 3 ER over 5 road outings this year.
BET UNDER 7.5 (-120).
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