The Kansas City Royals (36-25) and Cleveland Guardians (39-20) open a 3-Game series at Progressive Field Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Guardians won 7-6 last season
The Royals snapped a 3-game losing skid with a 4-3 win over the San Diego Padres Sunday at Kauffman Stadium. Despite the win, Kansas City is still just 2-6 in the past 8 outings, and while still occupying 2nd place in the AL Central, it is now 4 games back of the Guardians.
The Guardians took 2 of 3 from the Washington Nationals over the weekend, improving to 15-4 in the past 19 contests. The Under has cashed in the past 2 Games, although the Over is 6-3-2 in the previous 11 outings.
Kansas City is 2-6 in the past 8 road Games inside the division dating back to April 17. Cleveland has posted a 7-2 mark in 9 home Games inside the division.
Royals at Guardians projected starters
RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Triston McKenzie
Lugo (9-1, 1.72 ERA) makes his 13rd start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 78 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 6-1 road win vs. Minnesota Twins Wednesday
- 2024 road splits: 6-0, 0.86 ERA (42 IP, 4 ER), 0.81 WHIP, .163 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1 HR, 10 BB, 41 K in 6 starts
McKenzie (2-3, 3.77 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 in 57 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 13-7 road win vs. Colorado Rockies May 28
- 2024 home splits: 2-1, 3.31 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.44 WHIP, .208 OBA, 7 HR, 25 BB, 32 K in 7 starts
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Royals at Guardians odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Guardians -120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals -1.5 (+172) | Guardians +1.5 (-210)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -106 | U: -114)
Royals at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 3, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The ROYALS (+102) are a strong play as short ‘dogs on the road. Lugo has been amazing on the road this season, winning all 6 of his starts away from home while posting an ERA of just 0.86 in those outings.
The Guardians (-120) won’t make it easy, and Cleveland holds a 4-Game lead in the AL Central over these Royals. McKenzie has been very erratic this season, however, walking 25 batters in just 35 1/3 IP at home. The pitching scales are tipped in favor of the visitors.
While McKenzie has a decent ERA, he has served up 7 HR at home. On the flip side, Lugo has put up All-Star numbers, allowing just 1 HR in 42 IP on the road.
Run line/Against the spread
The Guardians +1.5 (-210) will set you back more than 2 times if you require a little bit of insurance and cannot back Cleveland straight up.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-114) is a strong play in this series opener.
The Under has cashed in the past 2 games for the Guardians while going 4-1-1 in McKenzie’s past 6 starting assignments.
For the Royals, they cashed the Under in Sunday’s game, snapping a 3-0 Over run. In Lugo’s past 8 starts, the total has gone low at a 6-1-1 pace.
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