John Deere Classic picks, golf odds and best bets | Pickswise

Sunday saw us with another win on the PGA Tour! The Rocket Mortgage Classic is fast becoming my favorite tournament on the schedule, after I picked the winner in ’22 and now in ’23. Rickie Fowler got the job done and won for the first time since the 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open. 

We had been looking forward to a Fowler victory, which seemed imminent after a period of excellent play and increased confidence. At 14/1, it was a great win and a rather good Sunday all around.

With 2 weeks in the U.K. beginning next week with the Scottish Open followed by the Open Championship, the field this week is weaker than we have seen of late. Therefore this is a big opportunity week for guys who have been playing well to take it 1 step further and secure victory, and all the privileges that go with a win.

In the last 4 weeks I have picked 2 winners and a runner-up. Plus, last year I nabbed J.T. Poston to win the John Deere Classic at 55/1 and he went wire-to-wire. Therefore, I’m really looking to keep this streak going and give you another champion this week!

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TPC Deere Run: What you need to know

At 7,289 yards, this par 71 will yield another low-scoring finish. Last year Poston got to -21 and in 2021 Lucas Glover took the title at -19. In 2018, Michael Kim smashed records with a winning score of -27. 

J.T. Poston won last year with a superb tee-to-green game (he gained almost 3.5 strokes on the field in that department) and excellent approach/around the green play. Plus, he was coming off a runner-up finish the week prior at the Travelers (the schedule was a little different last year competed to his year). 

A whole load of skillsets can prevail around this course, and it’s not overly challenging by any means. However, you will see a lot of elevation changes, undulation on the fairways and tight doglegs — so players will have to work their entire bags to make those all-important birdies.

With 3 par-5s, those holes will serve as real scoring opportunities and the 2nd hole plays as the easiest hole on the course year after year.

Tree-lined fairways put a premium accuracy, but the fairways are wider than the PGA Tour average. The Kentucky blue-grass rough is definitely something to avoid, as TPC Deere Run ranks as one of the toughest courses to play from the rough. 

This week is really going to be about setting yourself up for birdie chances and really capitalizing on them, and that’s easier here with large greens. So, once again, I’m going to really look at approach and birdie average when making my picks as well as overall solid ball-strikers.

Knox’s Knockout John Deere Classic picks

Denny McCarthy (+1600 at DraftKings)

I have been picking Denny McCarthy to cross the line and get his debut win for the last year now, if not longer. When he almost won at Memorial a few weeks ago, and I hadn’t picked him, I was furious with myself. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be, but this guy has been sniffing at victory for a while and it feels like he is almost there. He has 10 top-20 finishes this season and 5 of those are within the top 8. McCarthy is one of the best putters on tour, currently ranked fourth in strokes gained: putting and first inside 10 feet. He hasn’t lost strokes on the greens to the field since April. Plus, McCarthy finished T6 last year at the John Deere Classic. He is a popular favorite to win this week.

Adam Schenk (+3300 at Unibet)

Here is someone whose success this season has been coming in waves. Adam Schenk has 2 runner-up finishes in 2023, along with 2 T7s — 1 of which was last week in Detroit. After missing the cut at the U.S. Open and the Travelers, Schenk found something last week and put together 4 great rounds to get to -20. He also has superb tournament History here, finishing T4 in 2021 and T6 in 2019. Also, if you have followed my picks for a while you know I love to factor in the “externals” — like weddings, babies and all of that good stuff! Schenk and his wife, Courtney, both come from farming backgrounds and he recently purchased — and posted a photo of — a new John Deere mini tractor. Coincidence? Also, the Schenks did welcome a baby boy back in May. Maybe this is the week Schenk will “plough” through and finally “harvest” that win.

Stephan Jaeger (+4000 at DraftKings)

Stephan Jaeger is quietly putting together a really solid season of golf. Now sitting at #67 in the FedExCup standings (the top 70 make it to the playoffs), Jaeger will be looking to capitalize on his strong position this week and earn some valuable points. He has finished within the top 25 6 times this season, and last week a final round 63 catapulted him into a tie for ninth. In fact, he completed his final round by going 6-under over his last 6 holes — therefore he is entering the John Deere with a ton of confidence. His putting has been the one area of his game that’s let him down, and he didn’t even putt very well last week to finish within the top 10. Jaeger has it all to play for, and I like him at these odds.

Carson Young (+12500 at Unibet)

Carson Young began his rookie season on the PGA Tour with a string of missed cuts. However, in May he finished third at the Puerto Rico Open and something clicked into place. Since then, Young (who has one of the best mustaches the tour has ever seen) has 5 top-25 finishes and is putting together some good numbers. Carson leads the tour in consecutive fairways hit, which will be key when avoiding the tough Kentucky blue-grass rough at TPC Deere Run — plus his approach game is a real strength, sitting within the top 10 in approaches from 200 yards.

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John Deere Classic prop bets

Eric Cole top-10 finish (+400 at Bet365)

You wll always recognize Eric Cole from his joggers, but he has been gracing a lot of leaderboards of late. With 8 top-25 finishes so far this season, including a runner-up at the Honda Classic and a T6 at the recent Canadian Open, Cole’s putting has really been trending and he is currently second on the tour in overall putting average. This could be a great course set-up for him, as his overall game improves week on week.

Stephan Jaeger top European (+475 at DraftKings)

I’m taking Jaeger as an outright pick this week, but I also like the German for top European. He will have to defeat the new kid on the block, Ludvig Aberg, but I think Jaeger is in excellent form and will seize this opportunity week. 

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