We’ve got six games on the NHL slate tonight, including an all-Canadian showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Calgary Flames.
The Leafs are hoping to bounce back after a poor effort against Ottawa. Can they pull it together defensively against a struggling Flames team?
The NHL odds suggest they should. Find out why I believe they will in my free NHL picks for this November 10 matchup.
Flames vs Maple Leafs odds
Flames vs Maple Leafs predictions
Neither the Toronto Maple Leafs nor the Calgary Flames are off to a good start this season, with Toronto flirting with a .500 record and Calgary ranked 30th in the league. However, history has been on their side in this matchup, with them winning six of the last eight meetings, and I think they could get it done again tonight.
Toronto is looking to get back into the win column after a rough loss to the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday night.
“We sit in here and celebrate guys who score big numbers and score a ton. We don’t talk enough about what we give up. That’s the reality. We got to prioritize keeping the puck out of our net,” Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said Wednesday night.
Toronto reportedly spent the majority of Thursday’s practice prioritizing team defense and the penalty kill, two things that have severely plagued them this season. Hopefully Keefe’s scathing remarks can knock some sense into a Leafs team that averages a league-worst 4.86 goals allowed per Game on home ice while also giving up the fifth-most high-danger chances at 5-on-5.
There’s a good chance the Leafs get defensive reinforcements, as Jake McCabe’s return is imminent, and he was skating on the second pair in practice alongside Mark Giordano. With defensive-minded McCabe likely going into the Game, the Leafs could sit John Klingberg for the night, as he skated as the Leafs seventh defenseman on Thursday. Considering he’s allowed the second most high-danger chances in the entire NHL, this move could be addition by subtraction for a team looking to tighten things up on their own end of the ice.
On the flip side, Calgary is struggling to keep the puck in the net, averaging just 2.7 goals per game on the road. That’s not ideal when both of your goaltenders hold a sub-.900 SV% against a dangerous offensive team like Toronto that ranks fourth in scoring at home and can flip a switch and score in bunches.
So Toronto can win this game in two ways. Either they win a tight, low-scoring hockey game where they buckle down defensively as a unit, or they outscore the opponent similar to the way they did against Tampa Bay when they won 6-5 in overtime.
Lastly, there’s a good chance Leafs GM Brad Treliving, formerly of Calgary, could put some money on the board to give Toronto a little more skin in the game and pull out the win.
My best bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-150 at SIA)
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Flames vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
Maple Leafs moneyline
Auston Matthews anytime goal
For leg one of my same-game parlay, let’s roll with my best bet of the Leafs on the moneyline. I think the Leafs play with fire and passion tonight. Toronto has historically prospered in this matchup, going 6-2 on the moneyline in the last eight meetings, and should continue that level of dominance tonight.
Next up, I’m taking the alternate total of Over 5.5 goals. The Leafs have hit the Over in three straight games, with an average of 10 goals scored in each game. Calgary is 3-0-1 on the Over in their last four games, with at least six goals scored in each of them. Although I think the Leafs will enhance their defensive play, I don’t believe it’ll come at the expense of the offense, and we’ll still see at least six goals combined tonight.
For the final leg of my parlay, I like for Auston Matthews to score an anytime goal. He’s got a league-leading 13 goals through 12 games and sits atop the league in high-danger shots. Plus, he's scored five goals in his last seven games against the Flames.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Flames vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs opened as the favorites tonight at -155 odds, with the Flames getting +125 as the road dogs. Toronto is 6-2 on the moneyline over their last eight meetings against Calgary and has accrued 78% of the bets for tonight’s matchup.
With an emphasis on defending and an expected bounce-back from Joseph Woll, I think the Leafs get it done for Treliving.
The total for tonight’s game is set at 6.5. The Over is getting -135 odds with 63% of the handle, while the Under is paying +110. Typically, these two squads have played tight, low-scoring games, with the Under going 13-6-2 in the last 21 meetings.
However, both sides have been extremely leaky defensively this year, with sub .900 goaltending, which could lead to a high-scoring affair. Plus, the Over is 5-2 this year at Scotiabank Arena.
Flames vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Flames are 1-5 in their last six games vs. Eastern Conference teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Maple Leafs.
Flames vs Maple Leafs game info
|Location:||Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON|
|Date:||Friday, November 10, 2023|
|Puck drop:||7:00 p.m. ET|
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