FedEx St. Jude Championship picks, golf odds and best bets | Pickswise

It’s playoff time!

Last week at the Wyndham Championship I cashed my top-10 bets of J.T. Poston and Adam Scott, with Stephan Jaeger finishing 2 shots short. Lucas Glover took the trophy and jumped all the way up to 49th in the FedExCup standings. 

For the first time in 8 years, Justin Thomas will miss out on the playoffs after finishing 71st. It was pretty heartbreaking when his birdie chip on the 18th hit the flagstick and almost fell in the hole, which would have been enough to boost him into the top 70. Also, a T7 finish wasn’t quite enough to move Scott into the playoff field; he closed out the season at #72 to end his 16-year run of playoff appearances. 

This season the playoff format is slightly different. In previous years the top 125 in the season-long standings locked up their full tour cards for the following year and made it to the first of 3 playoff events. However, now only the top 70 play this week — with the top 50 playing next week in the BMW Championship before the top 30 make it to the Tour Championship at East Lake in Atlanta.

It’s worth noting that the PGA Tour season now runs to a calendar-year schedule as opposed to the new season beginning next month. Therefore, the top 125 won’t be locked up until the middle of November. I’ll get into all that after the FedExCup Playoffs end.

With these playoff events, the FedExCup points are QUADRUPLED — which equals a lot of volatility and movement. So instead of the usual 500 points awarded to the winners, they will receive 2,000 and make a huge leap up the standings. The incentive to make it all the way to the Tour Championship is huge, with minimum earnings coming in at $500,000. 

The guys also have this week and next to earn points in the coveted race for the Ryder Cup team positions. I’ll definitely be taking that into consideration with my picks.

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TPC Southwind: What you need to know

TPC Southwind is a par 70 measuring 7,243 yards. This is the second time the course has hosted a FedExCup Playoff event, but the course is well-known to the field because it was the home of a WGC for many years and has hosted events every year since 1989.

Will Zalatoris beat Sepp Straka in a playoff to win here in 2022. However, the only past champion from a tournament at this course who is playing this week is Harris English.

Iron play is a premium at TPC Southwind, and distance isn’t necessarily a prerequisite for success. Players who can position themselves well off the tee tend to score best in addition to guys who are elite with their mid-irons. Expect undulating fairways and interesting doglegs, and greens that aren’t overly tricky.

There are a lot of water hazards in the form of streams and lakes, and they will cause problems this week on 10 of the 18 holes. Since 2003, TPC Southwind’s 6,166 balls in the water are the highest at any PGA Tour course — beating TPC Sawgrass by more than 1,000. In fact, the 11th hole is similar to the iconic 17th at TPC Sawgrass but plays slightly longer. Si Woo Kim would like to forget the 13 he recorded on this hole a few years ago!

The 18th is a dramatic finishing hole with a severe dogleg left that cost Cam Smith the title in ’21 after he blasted his tee shot right and hit his second shot out of bounds.

This week, I’m looking at great all-round players with excellent iron/approach skills and players who are in stellar overall form entering their playoff journey.

Knox’s Knockout FedEx St. Jude Championship picks

Sam Burns (+4000 at BetMGM)

Here is someone who enters the week slightly under the radar yet has a lot to play for. Burns has played this course twice in the last two years and has finished T2 and T20, respectively, gaining almost 3 strokes in approach and 2 strokes around the green. Since his win at the Match Play Championship back in March, Burns has 6 top-20 finishes — including a T14 last week at the Wyndham, where he ranked 11th in approach. At 19th in the FedExCup standings, Burns is in a strong position yet will most definitely have the Ryder Cup on his mind. Looking to make his Team USA debut, Burns currently sits 13th on the points list and is really going to have to jump into the top 12 to have a strong chance given the caliber of names ahead of him.

Brian Harman (+4500 at BetMGM)

The recent Champion Golfer of the Year has seen his status elevated since his dominant win at Royal Liverpool, and he returns to a course at which he has enjoyed plenty of success. Harman hasn’t played since the Open last month and sits at #6 in the FedExCup standings. He is playing the best golf of his already impressive career and hasn’t finished outside of the top 12 in any of his last 4 starts. Last year he finished T3 here and had a T6 back in 2014. As we all saw at the British Open, Harman is an elite iron player and hasn’t dropped any strokes on the greens since the PGA Championship in May. This Georgia Bulldog has fight, and he has the big prize in his sights. These are fantastic odds for him.

J.T. Poston (+5500 at FanDuel)

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it’s hard not to pick Poston again this week. As I said last week, he is on a heater right now and has been one of the most consistent performers on the PGA Tour over the last month. Poston has 4 top-10s in his last 5 starts and leads the tour in approach shots from 100 yards. He has 2 top-20 finishes at this course under his belt and at 45th in the FedExCup rankings is in an excellent position to make it all the way to East Lake. Poston also moved up 12 spots in the Ryder Cup rankings this week; you can’t tell me a place on that team in Italy isn’t a motivating factor. Who knows what 2 good weeks could do for him?

Emiliano Grillo (+10000 at FanDuel)

This 100/1 price is excellent for Grillo supporters, so I’m taking it. The Argentine has only played this course once before and finished T31 here last year, however his run of form currently is impressive. Since his win at Colonial at the end of May, Grillo has 3 top-15 finishes on the tour and 2 of those have been top 10s in his last 2 starts. He is very consistent off the tee and has excellent par-3 stats for the season (seventh in par-3 scoring average and second in par-3 birdies), which confirm the brilliance of his iron Game. At 21st in the FedExCup standings, Grillo’s sights will be firmly set on making the Tour Championship for the first time since 2016. At this price, he is a great pick.

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FedEx St. Jude Championship prop bets

Lucas Glover top-10 (+550 at DraftKings)

Last year Scott battled his way into the playoffs and made it all the way to the Tour Championship. This year Glover was the only one who sat outside the top 70 heading into the Wyndham Championship and — with the win — now sits inside the top 50. He has been playing great, with 4 top-6 performances in his last 5 starts, and is playing this course for the seventh time in completion. In 2022 Glover finished T3 here. He has worked hard with the putter and is finally reaping the fruits of his labor.

Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young top-5 parlay (+2200 at DraftKings)

I’m taking this parlay, as I like Cameron Young to play well at +770 for a top-5 result. But I love combining it with a strong performance from McIlroy. Young seems to have turned a corner with his game, finishing T6 at the John Deere and then T8 at the British Open, plus he is sitting at eighth on the Ryder Cup points list. I think the pressure is on Young to prove himself for a pick over some of the more experienced players that sit behind him like Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau and even Thomas. He has 2 big weeks ahead. Plus McIlroy hasn’t finished outside of the top 9 since the start of May and he has 2 career top-7s at this course. I’ll happily lump these two together for 22/1.

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