The Detroit Tigers (27-28) and Boston Red Sox (28-28) meet Thursday as they open a 4-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Tigers vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2024; Boston took last year’s series 5-1
Detroit is on the road after a 4-2 home stand. The Tigers are looking to snap a 4-game losing streak on the road; they are just 3-10 away from home since April 24.
The Red Sox are back at Fenway after an abbreviated 3-game road trip. Boston went 1-2 in a series at the Baltimore Orioles. In their 2 losses (Monday and Wednesday), the Crimson Hose went a combined 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position.
Tigers at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Nick Pivetta
Flaherty (1-4, 3.84 ERA) is lined up for his 11th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 in 61 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 9-1 loss vs. Toronto Blue Jays Thursday
- Career vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 10.38 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 10 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance in 2023
Pivetta (2-3, 4.20 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 30 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 6-3 loss vs. Milwaukee Brewers Saturday
- Career vs. Tigers: 1-0, 3.12 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 3 BB, 13 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance — hasn’t faced them since 2021
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Tigers at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Tigers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-225) | Red Sox -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Tigers at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 4, Tigers 3
Moneyline
Boston is 10-1 across its last 11 games against Detroit.
The Red Sox have underplayed a run-scoring profile of 4.36 for and 3.93 against. And their analytics point to an even better spread in those figures.
Flaherty makes this start on 6 days of rest. That long interval has not often agreed with him.
The BoSox had a plus-17 in run differential in last year’s series.
FanDuel Sportsbook has a better offering here: TAKE THE RED SOX (-116).
Run line/Against the spread
Boston is a would-be lean. Juice floods out any profit potential, though. PASS.
Over/Under
The Under has cashed in 4 straight series meetings and is 12-2 across Boston’s last 14 Games at home.
Both starters have better expected-ERA figures than what their surface numbers show. They likely get the benefit of an inward-blowing breeze in this series opener.
A drop in this number has taken away some Under leverage, though. Figure a slight lean on the UNDER 7 (+100).
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