College Football Week 14 Saturday Best Bets: Our expert is on a 6-1 run! | Pickswise

Week 13 of the college Football season is behind us, and what an incredible week it was. We saw tons of chaos across the board, particularly in the SEC and Big 12, where a myriad of major upsets left a massive impact on the College Football Playoff rankings. Rivalry week has now arrived, as tons of Games across the country mean just a little more to the faNBAses involved this weekend. With that said, it’s time to dive into Saturday’s CFB Week 14 schedule with my weekly best bets column. I’m on a 6-1 best bets run over the last 2 weeks following a 3-0 card in last week’s column. The last month of the regular season has been kind to me once again this season, so let’s keep that momentum going this week!

We have an important game in the SEC to headline this week’s crop of college football best bets, along with a couple of other contests that I see value on. Let’s take a look at my top college football picks for Week 14 on Saturday.

Vanderbilt Commodores +11.5 over Tennessee Volunteers (-110)

Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.5

Last weekend couldn’t have gone any better for Tennessee, as the Volunteers got to bully an overmatched UTEP team at home and watch as their fellow College Football Playoff contenders in the SEC went down in embarrassing fashion on the road to inferior opponents. Don’t look now, but Josh Heupel’s team has found itself in that exact same situation this week, as Tennessee will face off against Vanderbilt in what is sure to be the best installment in this series in years.

On one side, you have a Vanderbilt offense that is similar to what we see from service academies. Diego Pavia has been a revelation at quarterback and he spearheads a unit that ranks inside the top 15 in EPA per dropback and consistently wins on 3rd down (30th in 3rd/4th down success rate). Despite their terrific passing metrics, what the Commodores do best is run the ball effectively on early downs and chew up a ton of clock, which limits possessions for their opponent and shortens the game as a result. That’s exactly what makes Vanderbilt so good as an underdog, as Clark Lea’s team is 7-1 against the number as an underdog, while sitting at just 1-2 against the spread as a favorite. It also helps that the Commodores are taking on a Tennessee team that hasn’t impressed me all season long, particularly in the passing game on offense. That lack of consistent success and any threat of explosiveness downfield especially hurts against a Vanderbilt defense that is solid against the run, but can be had in the secondary. This Volunteers team is 0-4 in SEC play as a double-digit favorite this season, and with an offense that has struggled mightily with generating results all season long, it’s easy to see why.

A week ago, we saw numerous playoff hopefuls go on the road and lose outright as double-digit favorites, particularly in the SEC. While I’m not calling for an outright upset on Saturday, it’s clear to me that Vanderbilt is live in this game, just like against the likes of Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn and Texas earlier this season. On top of that, SEC underdogs in conference play this season are a whopping 40-17-1 (70%) against the spread, which is the best of any conference over the past 5 seasons. I fully expect that trend to continue in Nashville on Saturday, so let’s get to the window with Vanderbilt.

Read our full Tennessee vs Vanderbilt prediction

Oregon Ducks -17.5 over Washington Huskies (-110)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -19.

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I’ve had a pretty good feel for this Oregon team throughout Big Ten play, and I was more than happy to fade them in an awful spot against Wisconsin back on November 16. That trip to Madison marked the 8th straight game without a bye week in conference play for the Ducks, as Oregon had to traverse through multiple time zones for the third time in the span of 6 weeks. What we saw at Camp Randall Stadium was a reflection of 2 months of fatigue (and injuries) finally catching up to the top team in the nation. Fast forward a couple of weeks, and Oregon still has the inside track to a Big Ten title and the top overall seed in the College Football Playoff. All this team needs to do is keep winning, as style points don’t matter too much given the strength of the Ducks’ resume at this point. However, this week’s matchup against Washington is one that’s undoubtedly very personal for Dan Lanning, his coaching staff and this group of players.

Lanning doesn’t have many losses in his time as Oregon’s head coach, but he has a trio of losses against Washington over the last 2 seasons, including a pair of brutal 3-point defeats a season ago, the second of which kept the Ducks out of the College Football Playoff. This time around, Oregon finally gets this game at home for the first time in three meetings, and I expect the Ducks to be out for blood against a clearly inferior Washington team that has lost its last 3 road games in Big Ten play by a combined margin of 67 points. Jedd Fisch and his staff deciding between senior Will Rogers and freshman Demond Williams Jr., which gives Oregon’s excellent defense (10th in success rate allowed, 5th in EPA per pass) plenty to prepare for. However, both quarterbacks have struggled mightily away from home this season, much like the rest of the team.

On the other side of the ball, Oregon’s offense continues to be one of the best units in the nation, as the Ducks are inside the top 10 in EPA per rush, EPA per pass and success rate. And even if Dillon Gabriel is going to be without top target Tez Johnson once again in this game, Jordan James and the Oregon ground game should run wild on this awful Huskies rush defense (99th in rushing success rate allowed, 111th in 3rd and 4th down success rate). Will Stein’s offense was buttoned up and razor sharp coming out of the first bye week of the season, and I’m expecting a similar effort in front of a raucous home crowd at Autzen Stadium on Saturday. And if Washington gets behind by any sort of margin, don’t expect the Huskies to be able to throw the ball against this elite Oregon secondary, which could lead to some untimely turnovers and short fields for the Ducks offense. Oregon should suffocate the Huskies’ offense in this game, so I’ll lay the wood with Lanning and company.

Read our full Washington vs Oregon prediction

UTSA Roadrunners +7.5 over Army Black Knights (-115)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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One of the best situational spots on the board this week comes to us at West Point, where the UTSA Roadrunners are in great position to keep things close against an Army team that is in a brutal sandwich spot at home. The Black Knights are coming off a crushing defeat against Notre Dame, which essentially ended their College Football Playoff hopes. Army’s next couple of games are the biggest of its season too, with the Black Knights set to take on Tulane in the AAC title game next week, followed by their yearly showdown against Navy the following week. Jeff Monken’s team is essentially playing for nothing in this nonconference game, and the Black Knights did suffer some injuries against the Fighting Irish a week ago that could linger into this week’s contest. It certainly doesn’t help matters that UTSA will have an extra day to prep for this game, and teams are 0-9 against the number the week after playing Notre Dame this season. The blows taken last week by Bryson Daily and company could come back to haunt Army on Saturday.

Not only is this a terrific spot for UTSA, but the Roadrunners are playing some of their best football of the season in recent weeks. After dealing with injuries early in the season, head coach Jeff Traylor and his team have really put it together on both sides of the ball. The Roadrunners have won 4 of their last 5 games, with the lone loss coming by just 1 point after blowing a 35-7 lead against Tulsa. Take away that strange result, and this UTSA team has been essentially flawless over the second half of the season, scoring 38 points in each of its last 5 games. The Roadrunners shouldn’t have any issues generating explosive plays against Army’s defense, but what’s even more impressive is the ability of UTSA’s defense to stop the run. Traylor’s bunch is 2nd nationally in rushing success rate allowed and 11th in yards per rush allowed, so there is reason to suggest that they’ll slow down Army’s ground attack in this one. I don’t have much separating these teams on a neutral field, so I’ll gladly take the points with UTSA on Saturday.

Find out the rest of our college Football best bets for Saturday’s action