The Los Angeles Clippers are still searching for their first win since acquiring James Harden from the Sixers a couple of weeks ago, and they’ll be hoping it will come tonight against a Nuggets team that is hanging on without point guard Jamal Murray.
Can LA ride its defense to an upset victory in the NBA odds?
Let's dive right into it with our in-depth preview and NBA picks for Clippers vs. Nuggets on Tuesday, November 14.
Clippers vs Nuggets odds
Clippers vs Nuggets predictions
On the surface, things are going just swimmingly for the Denver Nuggets. Despite losing Jamal Murray four games ago in a win over the Bulls, the team’s maintained its winning ways, dropping just one game which came on the road in Houston last time out. They’re now 6-0 at home, but are there signs they’re ready to slow down just a bit?
That’s the question I’m asking. Sure, Denver is 10th in defensive efficiency in three Games without Murray, but its numbers may be a bit iNFLated given the Pelicans and Rockets aren’t exactly strong offensive groups, and the Warriors played Denver without the playmaking abilities of Draymond Green — a Game that also came down to the wire.
The Los Angeles Clippers have been running at an incredibly slow pace since acquiring James Harden, and while their numbers have been less than impressive, they’re still ranking in the Top 12 in the league on both ends of the floor in those four games. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Clippers have played some good defenses in the Nets, Knicks, and Grizzlies and should have their easiest matchup yet on that side against a team that is now starting the defense-averse Reggie Jackson in place of Murray.
In a slow-paced game that should feature a strong Clippers defense and an improved offense given the matchup, the Clippers should have the Nuggets on upset alert in this NBA In-Season Tournament game.
My best bet: Clippers +4.5 (-105 at Caesars)
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Clippers vs Nuggets same-game parlay
James Harden Over 15.5 points
Aaron Gordon Over 7.5 rebounds
I do think this will be a Harden breakout game of sorts. The self-proclaimed “system” has yet to really find his footing with the Clippers, but he can rest assured that he won’t have to face much in terms of defense on Tuesday.
Harden has averaged 26.9 points per game when Jackson has been on the opposite side of the floor in his career, and he’s gone for 29 or more in three of his last five versus the veteran PG. He’s hit the Over 15.5 points in all but two of his 22 meetings with Jackson.
LA is hoping for Harden to shoot more, according to head coach Ty Lue, and he did take a season-high 12 shots last time out so I think there’s a good chance we’ll see him fill up the scoring column.
This is a troublesome spot for the Clippers frontcourt, which leads me to this play on Aaron Gordon. Since acquiring Harden, the Clippers have grabbed just 50.1% of available boards, ranking 15th in the league. Denver’s been strong in that area and Gordon, in particular, has grabbed at least eight rebounds in each of his last five games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Clippers vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
If you’re going to take a bet out on the total, it has to be the Under. The Clippers defense has remained strong even with Harden entering the fray, and it’s equally hard to argue with the Nuggets’ Top-10 ranking in defensive efficiency.
It’s worth noting, too, that the Nuggets offense has just taken a slight step back without Murray and that’s been masked by matchups against poor defenses. On top of that, since November 2 (when Murray was injured) both of these teams are in the Bottom 5 in pace. LA is also coming off of its slowest-paced Game of the year.
Both of these teams — who have both turned over the point guard position — are committed more to playing halfcourt sets and slowing the game down with their new personnel. With that, the Under is a strong play. DraftKings has taken 74% of the bets on the total on the Over with 70% of the handle coming in on the Over as well. Just 12% of the bets and 13% of the cash is on the Clippers.
Clippers vs Nuggets betting trend to know
Clippers vs Nuggets game info
|Location:||Ball Arena, Denver, CO|
|Date:||Tuesday, November 14, 2023|
|Tip-off:||10:00 p.m. ET|
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