The Boston Red Sox (25-24) and Tampa Bay Rays (25-25) meet for the finale of a 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Tropicana Field is set for 6:50 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 3-3
Boston picked up a 5-2 win Tuesday, covering as a +122 road underdog. The Red Sox scored 5 unanswered runs between the 2nd and 9th innings after the Rays jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 1st. While 3B Rafael Devers‘ streak of homering in consecutive games was snapped at 6 with a 1-for-3 showing — he singled — the Red Sox won their 3rd game in a row and look for the sweep here.
No matter what happens Wednesday, Tampa Bay lost its 1st home series to Boston since July 22-24, 2019. The Rays, who haven’t scored more than 2 runs in their last 3 games, have now lost their last 3 overall and their last 3 home games.
Red Sox at Rays projected starters
RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP Ryan Pepiot
Bello (4-2, 3.96 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 36 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, 0 BB, 4 K in 10-6 loss at St. Louis Cardinals Friday
- Career vs. Rays: 1-3, 6.92 ERA (26 IP, 20 ER), 1.69 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 across 5 starts
Pepiot (3-2, 3.68 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 36 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 7-6 home win in 10 innings vs. New York Mets May 5
- Never faced Red Sox before
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Red Sox at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:43 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rays -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-200) | Rays -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Red Sox at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 3, Red Sox 2
Moneyline
LEAN RAYS (-125).
The Rays are 7-3 in their last 10 matchups vs. the Red Sox.
Tampa Bay is too good of a team and should stop this current losing streak, especially against a team in Boston that the Rays have seen success against recently.
This is only a lean because Boston and Tampa Bay are each 5-5 in their respective last 10 games, and because the Red Sox are the hotter team entering this matchup.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
My prediction calls for a 1-run Game, but the juice on Boston +1.5 (-200) isn’t worth the risk of betting on. Back the moneyline and/or O/U instead.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (+100).
The Under has hit in 3 consecutive games for Tampa Bay and is 7-3 in its last 10 outings. For Boston, the Under is 2-0 in its last 2 games and is 6-4 in its last 10. The Under has also hit in 7 of the last 10 Boston-Tampa Bay matchups.
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