After a jam-packed In-Season Tournament Friday, tonight’s slate only features six games — but don’t sleep on these matchups, with some of the league’s hottest teams in action.
There’s lots to like in the latest NBA odds, with the surging Miami Heat looking for an eighth straight win and both the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder trying to pad their top-four records in the West. All three teams should be go-to NBA picks.
The NBA player props market will be booming too, and I’ve picked out my top three props for a sneaky-good Saturday night schedule.
Best NBA player props today
- LaMelo Ball Over 26.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)
- Duncan Robinson Over 3.5 threes (-109 at Unibet)
- Desmond Bane Over 5.5 assists (+110 at DraftKings)
Picks made on November 18 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for November 18
Prop bet #1: LaMelo lights it up
With the Charlotte Hornets off to a 3-8 start and LaMelo Ball in the news more for his controversial neck tattoo than for leading his team to wins, it’s been a rough first month for Steve Clifford’s men. A slew of injuries hasn’t helped either.
But through it all Ball has been putting up numbers. He’s coming off a 37-point outburst last night against the Milwaukee Bucks, and I see him stuffing the stat sheet again tonight.
Volume is the name of the game with LaMelo — and that’s why I’m drawn to the Over on his points prop. Though he’s averaging 23 points per game this season, he’s dropped 30 points or more in four of his last six contests.
Even with Miles Bridges back in the rotation, Ball took 28 shots in the 130-99 blowout loss to the Bucks, and he’s jacked up 19 or more field goal attempts in each of his last six outings.
Both the Hornets and New York Knicks are on the second night of a back-to-back set here, but Charlotte has the luxury of playing both Games at Spectrum Center, whereas the Knicks are on the road again after a stop in the capital yesterday to face the Washington Wizards.
At 6-foot-7, LaMelo is going to be able to walk into size mismatches tonight against Jalen Brunson and Immanuel Quickley — and he’s even got a few inches on Josh Hart, New York’s top perimeter stopper.
The Hornets have lost their last five home games and there’s every chance that skid stretches to six tonight, but I’m counting on Ball to be in attack mode and keep Charlotte afloat.
LaMelo Ball prop: Over 26.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: No funk for Dunc
The Miami Heat’s seven-game win streak has put the rest of the Eastern Conference on notice. Sure, they didn’t land Damian Lillard this summer, but they’re crafty, relentless, and deep.
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are leading the charge again, but Duncan Robinson’s consistent shooting has stood out as another X-factor — and he’s been particularly dialed in over the past week.
Robinson has knocked down 14 triples across his last three games, including 6-for-10 from beyond the arc in the win over the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday.
He’s up to 39% from deep this year and, with the exception of Alex Caruso, I don’t see the Chicago Bulls’ perimeter defenders having the discipline to limit Robinson tonight. The Bulls are giving up the third most 3-point attempts per Game in the league this season (39.2) and the fourth most made 3-pointers (14.3).
It’s easy to forget that Robinson fell out of the rotation for the Heat last season amid a shooting slump, but he’s hit the ground running this year and Miami needs him even more with Tyler Herro sidelined.
Robinson has also noticeably expanded his game beyond just being a 3-point shooter, which keeps defenders off-balance. He can do more off the dribble and his two-man game with Adebayo has been deadly.
With his minutes edging up into the high 30s over the past week, I love the Robinson props for this matchup and I’m taking the Over on his made 3-pointers.
Duncan Robinson prop: Over 3.5 threes (-109 at Unibet)
Prop bet #3: Bane runs the show
This season is veering from bad to worse for the Memphis Grizzlies. Ja Morant is still suspended, Steven Adams is out for the whole year, and now Marcus Smart is likely to be sidelined for up to five weeks with a foot injury.
Smart’s absence leaves a playmaking void for the Grizzlies and the most obvious solution is to put the ball in Desmond Bane’s hands even more often. That’s where I’m looking for a Memphis prop tonight.
Bane is already averaging 4.5 dimes a game this season and that number is trending upwards. He’s recorded 19 assists in his past three games, including eight against the Utah Jazz last week, and the Grizzlies simply don’t have a lot of other options for breaking down defenses.
A matchup against the San Antonio Spurs’ league-worst defense tonight should help Bane get comfortable in an expanded playmaking role. The Spurs are giving up 124.5 points a game this year and they’ll be vulnerable against a fresh Memphis team that hasn’t played since Tuesday.
Of course, the Bane assists prop depends on the Grizzlies making enough of their open looks, and there’s an element of risk there, with Memphis hitting just 43% from the field this season – tied with the Portland Trail Blazers for the worst mark in the NBA.
Santi Aldama was in rhythm in the loss to the L.A. Lakers earlier this week but Jaren Jackson Jr. made just three of his 16 shots. Even so, I’m still trusting Bane to hit the Over here as the Grizzlies’ primary facilitator.
Demond Bane prop: Over 5.5 assists (+110 at DraftKings)
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