As we approach 10 games played for most NBA teams, some early season trends are beginning to solidify. By taking stock of these as well as all four matchups on tonight's slate, I’ve picked out my three favorite NBA player props.
Today I like the NBA odds on another big performance for Giannis Antetokounmpo and I’m buying in on Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett’s early season success.
Read on for my top NBA picks for Monday, November 13.
Best NBA player props today
- Barrett Over 19.5 pts (-102 at FanDuel)
- Barnes Over 8.5 rebounds (+105 at DraftKings)
- Antetokounmpo Over 28.5 pts (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made on November 13 at 2:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for November 13
Prop bet #1: Broadway Bully
Rather than make a trade for a big name or splashy free agency addition, the New York Knicks bet big on continuity and internal development this season. And in the case of fifth-year wing RJ Barrett, the early returns on that bet have been excellent.
Whether it is because of high-level reps gained with the bronze medal earning Team Canada at the World Cup, the security of a long-term contract, or something else entirely, RJ is off to easily the best start of his NBA career. He has never looked better at knowing when to drive or when to pass, and he’s making reads that he never would have a year ago.
He’s averaging 22.6 points per game on 62% true shooting and playing outstanding defense. There is a strong argument that outside of Mitchell Robinson (another development success story), he has been the best player on the Knicks this season. After a career-low 31% from deep last season, Barrett has hit 50% of his triples so far this year and is taking more shots off screens and handoffs.
RJ’s prop numbers haven’t totally bought into the leap yet though. He’s had 20 points or more in five of his seven games this year and came close in the other two. He’s also had 24 or more in three straight. I’m buying Barrett’s leap.
RJ Barrett prop: Over 19.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Scottie boards
NBA development is rarely linear. Still, it is usually slightly more linear than it has been for Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes. Barnes was a shock draft pick by Toronto and an even more shocking NBA Rookie of the Year winner but failed to meet sky-high expectations in his second season.
This year, however, Barnes has been a revelation. He’s improved as a scorer and defender, but it’s his elite floor game that has been so enticing. A big part of that floor game has been a renewed commitment on the glass.
This season, Barnes is in the 94th percentile for offensive rebounding and the 88th on the defensive glass among forwards, both easily career bests. He’s up to 9.8 rebounds per game on the season, and I like his chances to build on that average on Monday against the Washington Wizards.
The Wizards are 2-7 and look like lottery roadkill already. The team isn’t devoid of talent, but they are so lacking in purpose and cohesion that it doesn’t really matter.
But most damning of all, the Wizards play with less force than any other team in the NBA. They rank dead last in offensive rebounding percentage at 20.9%, and are second-worst in defensive rebounding percentage at 33.5%. I believe Barnes will outmuscle and outwork his way to this number.
Scottie Barnes prop: Over 8.5 rebounds (+105 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Giannis freaks out Chicago
The Chicago Bulls defense is fundamentally broken. Despite having personnel that clearly tilts toward favoring offense, they were actually a very good defense last season. But that has not been the case this year at all.
The Bulls are allowing the worst opponent location effective field goal percentage of any team in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass, because they allow the most opponent threes and the third-most attempts at the rim of any team. While most teams make a trade-off to limit one or the other, the Bulls let you pick their poison on any given play.
The Milwaukee Bucks’ offensive process has not been great to open the season, and it seems like Giannis Antetokounmpo has decided to take things into his own hands. Rather than defer, Giannis is going into all-out attack mode. He scored just shy of his career-high when he had 54 points on Thursday and followed that up with 35 on Saturday.
The Bulls are also on a back-to-back, which isn’t likely to help their chances of slowing “The Greek Freak” down.
And yet, despite all these factors working in Giannis’ favor, the points prop for him on Monday is three points lower than it was against either the Orlando Magic or Indiana Pacers, both of which he easily cleared. This is one of my favorite bets on Monday’s board.
Giannis Antetokounmpo prop: Over 28.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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